Netanyahu’s win puts Israel on unknown course

Benjamin Netanyahu’s crushing victory in last week’s Israeli elections surprised even his closest allies. He was lagging behind in opinion polls and surveys and at one point, exit polls showed him neck-and-neck with his rival, the Zionist Union. But when all was said and done, Netanyahu’s Likud emerged as a decisive winner; grabbing 30 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.

The turnaround happened 24 hours before the polls opened. Netanyahu declared that there would not be a Palestinian state on his watch and he warned the electorate of the threat posed by Israel’s Arab minority, in what observers described as a racist ploy that attracted far-Right voters who flocked to the Likud in the last minute.

Netanyahu was able to steal far-Right voters to win a historic fourth term as Prime Minister. He will now form a narrow Right-wing government comprising religious and ultra-nationalist parties. The new Labour, the Zionist Union, which won 24 seats, will sit in the opposition along with the Arab bloc, which won 14 seats. Most of the Leftist parties lost ground, indicating that the Israeli society was leaning further to the Right.

Now Netanyahu has the mandate he needs to press ahead with his far-Right agenda, starting with the passing of the controversial law recognising Israel as a Jewish state, launching an unprecedented campaign to build and expand illegal colonies in occupied East Jerusalem, the Jordan Valley and the rest of the West Bank and sidelining any attempt to revive the two-state solution. In addition to that, he will continue to defy the Obama administration over its negotiations with Tehran to seal an agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme.

Reactions to Netanyahu’s victory were subdued outside Israel. His promise that he will not allow a Palestinian state has elicited timid reactions in the West and in Ramallah. US President Barack Obama reiterated his commitment to the two-state solution and when he called Netanyahu to congratulate him, the latter said that he still supported a peaceful settlement with Palestinians. British Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg said Britain would recognise Palestine if Netanyahu rejected the two-state solution. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called on Netanyahu to renew his commitment to the same plan.

But it is clear that Netanyahu was manoeuvring and had no intention of resuming peace talks or commit to the establishment of a Palestinian state. His far-Right agenda will face little resistance inside Israel. It is up to the international community to take action. The New York Times reported that the Obama administration was seriously considering agreeing to the passage of a United Nations Security Council resolution, “embodying the principles of a two-state solution that would include Israel’s 1967 borders with Palestine and mutually agreed swaps of territory”.

If this is to happen, it will constitute a severe blow to Netanyahu and to Israel in the international arena. It is no secret that the personal relationship between Obama and the Israeli prime minister is at its worst now, especially after Netanyahu rebuffed the White House and delivered a speech at the US Congress. The second blow would come in the form of an agreement between the international community and Iran on Tehran’s nuclear programme in the coming few days.

Further action could come from European countries that are yet to recognise the state of Palestine and if Netanyahu persists with his unilateral policies, then the issue of slamming sanctions against Israel will be considered. The Palestinians must make use of the current international frustration with Netanyahu to their advantage as well. There is little room for manoeuvre, but Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas should press ahead with diplomatic measures to isolate Israel politically.

But he needs Arab support. The demise of the two-state solution should have forced an emergency meeting of Arab foreign ministers few days before the convening of an Arab summit in Egypt later this month. The Arab world should have sent a strong message to the West that reneging on the two-state solution is a clear violation of Israeli commitments under the Washington Accords.

The far Right approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is short-sighted. Burying a negotiated settlement with the Palestinians will not end the existential challenge that Israel is facing and will continue to face in the coming years. Israel is already turning into an apartheid state and Netanyahu has no answer to the most important question that Israel is facing: What to do with millions of Palestinians in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and inside the Green Line or Israel proper?

The future of the Palestinians is now enmeshed with that of Israel. Netanyahu’s opponents in Israel speak of an ultimate bi-national state; the exact opposite of what he and his far-Right allies want to achieve. By turning a deaf ear to these warnings he is putting Israel on a course that neither he nor anyone else knows where it will lead.

Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. Follow Al Sharif on twitter at www.twitter.com/@plato010