Making a pitch for talks with the Taliban

Afghan President Hamid Karzai seems to be very keen to hold talks with Taliban militants after nine years of all out war against them in Afghanistan. His new wish was unexpectedly backed up by participants of a recent London Conference on Afghanistan.

Unexpected! For the western countries including the US never backed any such move whenever Pakistan tried to reach a peace agreement or negotiate one with Taliban militants in the past. Instead, they always snubbed Pakistan accusing its premier intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of allegedly having alleged links with Taliban whose regime in Afghanistan was supported by the country in the 90s.

After such allegations by the US and its western allies, Pakistan was forced to deviate from what was known as ‘3-D policy (Dialogue, Development and Deterrence) and pushed the country to launch massive military operation against the Taliban in Swat and different parts of the tribal areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border to play its role as a frontline state in the US war against terrorism.

Karzai's initiative of talking to the Taliban is good but can never succeed until he first takes steps to ease tension with neighbouring Pakistan, whom he has been accusing of supporting Taliban militants to create unrest in Afghanistan, forgetting the fact that only a stable Afghanistan can bring peace in Pakistan and bring an end to the Taliban movement. He needs to mend ties and gain Pakistan's trust to back his initiative of talking to Taliban.

However, it is quite evident that the new Afghan peace process in its present shape is a non-starter because there is no mediator between Taliban groups and the Afghan government.

Karzai visited Saudi Arabia soon after the London conference to muster support and requested the Saudi government to be a mediator but the later reportedly refused to do so until the Taliban broke its ties with Al Qaida led by Osama Bin Laden. It is the second condition that will determine if any peace initiative can be undertaken. It would be unrealistic to expect the Taliban to abandon Bin Laden whose anti-US stance is the focal point of the Taliban movement.

Afghanistan also wants Pakistan to back its efforts by persuading the Taliban in Pakistan to come to the negotiating table believing that the ISI still has contacts but Pakistan is not in a position to do so especially when it is at war with the Taliban in South Waziristan and other areas.

It is not easy to woo the Taliban for talks now especially when they control most of Afghanistan and still have capabilities to launch offensive against Nato and US forces. The Taliban know that they are being lured into talks because of the heavy economic and human losses incurred by the US and its allies.

According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS) report, the estimated costs associated with US operations in Afghanistan have now exceeded $127 billion (Dh466 billion) since 9/11.

Coalition spending

In recent years, funding for Afghanistan has risen to about $20 billion annually. The US spends about $3.6 billion a month in Afghanistan. The average cost per month is calculated at an average 51,000 US troops in Afghanistan, but that number is likely to go up with the 68,000 troops the Obama administration already is planning on having in that country.It could double if President Barack Obama backs a reported request from General Stanley McChrystal, the commander in Afghanistan, to send as many as 40,000 more troops to the country.

Another good but unexpected development is India's willingness to back efforts to seek peace with Taliban to stabilise Afghanistan. Indian Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna has also indicated a softening of stand towards the Taliban.

However, India has its own conditions for its support. India wants the Taliban to meet three conditions acceptance of the Afghan constitution, breaking connections with Al Qaida and other terrorist groups and avoiding violence to be accepted in the mainstream of Afghan politics and society. India also believes that military action is not the only solution. Nevertheless, it is a welcome move for creating peace in the region.

In a situation, when all the important players in Afghan conflict are trying to negotiate with the Taliban, provided they lay down their arms and integrate in the Afghan government, it is important to see whether the Taliban are interested in such talks.

In fact, the Taliban are not even ready to talk to Karzai, who in their eyes is playing to the tune of the US and is a mere ‘puppet'. They continue to demand withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan and insist that this matter is non-negotiable.

The Taliban, whether Afghan or Pakistani, are spiritually and strategically linked to each other and have the same anti-US agenda. They cannot be separated. It is not advisable to talk to the Afghan Taliban and kill Taliban militants in Pakistan in military operations.

Those offering peace dialogue or ‘reintegration' to the Afghan Taliban seem to be ignorant of the fact that they cannot achieve their target until they reach the militants on both sides of the border.

Heavy funding is being pledged for supporting talks but it should be clear to the world that Taliban cannot be just ‘bought' in the name of integration. The US and its allies in the war against terrorism, should instead push for launching massive development packages to provide the local population, which is much bigger than Taliban militants, with jobs, business opportunities and education. Also, the Afghan government needs to improve its credibility and governance record before talking to Taliban.