Like defeat, the penalty of victory too can be painful. First World War victors can testify. They will tell you how their Versailles victory doomed Europe 20 years later. Then there is another penalty of victory, resulting from arrogance and recklessness. It's currently penalising America in Iraq following its arrogant victory in Afghanistan. It also enabled Hezbollah to humiliate America and Israel in 2000 and 2006.
There is the other type of penalty too. Comes from the fear those around the victor have. Let's call it, "Victor's Hegemony Syndrome". It doesn't matter whether the hegemony is real or imagined. The effects of the fear are dangerously real.
It is this fear that Hezbollah must dissuade, not just verbally but actively also. It is this fear that Hezbollah's enemies will exaggerate and exploit. It is this fear that Lebanese must be aware of. Because it is this fear that will first undo Lebanon's victory then divert reconstruction efforts. Should this fear be allowed to take root, all Lebanese will be penalised as their country moves towards precipice and civil war, more destructive than the last civil war and the recent American-Israeli aggression, combined.
Lebanon, despite its size, has emerged as the leading Arab nation because of the greatness of its national character, dynamism and the fortitude of its people. No Arab country recovered its occupied territory as gallantly as Lebanon did in 2000. No Arab country faced and defeated joint enemies with the combined brutality and capabilities of Israel and America. No Arab country endured as destructive a civil war, then reconstructed dynamically. If God still has a specific chosen people among us, the Semites, it is surely the Lebanese people.
Yet, despite their fortitude and resilience, Lebanese have potentially destructive weaknesses.
Tuxedos, glamour and the cosmopolitanism of its social life aside, Lebanon has a tribal society, complete with militias, war lords, exclusive communities, tribal shaikhs and distinct religious affiliations. While this diversity has been a source of peacetime strength, during conflicts, the mix can be precarious requiring a very delicate balancing act.
As if this is not challenging enough, there are regional and international players to consider. Lebanon has historically been the battlefield where outside forces fought their wars and settled scores.
First there are the major next of kin, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Then there is the distant yet close cousin, Iran. Each one has real and imagined stakes in Lebanon. Sunni Saudi Arabia and Egypt will not tolerate any Shi'ite Iranian influence in Lebanon. Reason why we saw them keen to see Shi'ite Hezbollah defeated. Syria will not allow its historical ties and influence to be replaced by any outside power. More so, if that power is Israeli, American or French. Iran considers itself to be the guardian of the world's Shi'ite communities of which the biggest outside Iran are in Lebanon and Iraq.
The fact that the majority Sunnis, wherever they governed, have oppressed their Shi'ite minorities, serves only to increase Iran's anxiety. In places such as Saudi Arabia, this Iranian anxiety provokes counter-anxiety and consequently more oppressive measures against their own Shi'ite minorities and mistrust of movements such as Hezbollah. The net result is a vicious circle and ultimately settling of scores, which benefits America's and Israel's unholy regional agendas.
Threat
To these regional players can be added Israel, America and France. Israel, defeated twice in Lebanon, sees that small country as the major source of threat to its existence. Apart from Hezbollah's highly organised, motivated and well trained guerilla force, Lebanon is the melting pot of Arab intellectuals. For Israel, any Arab development is perceived as a direct threat to its existence. No Arab country compares with Lebanon's potential to develop. Therefore, in the eyes of Israel, Lebanon is, by definition, potentially a great threat.
For America, Lebanon is another jigsaw piece on the roadmap of an Israel orientated new Middle East. This American view is challenged by France which sees its former colony as France's natural domain. France partnered with America and Israel to remove Syria from Lebanon, but now finds its interests challenged by its partners!
As Hezbollah celebrates another victory against Israel and America, it must navigate carefully through the storms ahead. Hezbollah must assure Lebanon's internal forces that they can, together, create a level playing field. Not long ago, Hezbollah called Lebanese political forces to come together and create a strong Lebanon able to protect itself against the enemy at the gate.
Hezbollah must do this again, very vigorously, while ensuring, also very vigorously, that regional and international players do not pressure the Lebanese government and other internal players into giving Israel and America on the negotiating table what Lebanese, with their blood and treasure, refused to give on the battlefield. For Lebanese, failure has never been an option. Lebanese must stay the course.
As Israel, over the coming weeks and months, licks its wounds, suffering the heavy penalty of defeat, Lebanon and Hezbollah must avoid the penalty of victory, which can be catastrophic.
Munir Daair is a Yemeni political writer.
