In the grip of a predicament

If you're an Arab lawyer, or need one, Damascus is a good place to be now, as the city hosts the 22nd Arab Bar Federation conference. All those barristers might end up doing a brisk business as well.

Last Wednesday, Asef Shawkat, head of Syrian military intelligence and Syrian President Bashar Al Assad's brother-in-law, was added to the US Treasury Department's outlaw list for his suspected role in abetting insurgents in Iraq, supporting Palestinian extremists against Israel and fomenting trouble in Lebanon. Busy guy.

Were the infamous lobbyist Jack Abramhoff's "wasta" still for sale, even he would be hard pressed to wriggle out of that executive order. A similar decree in June 2005 targeted the late Gazi Kanaan and his successor as dictator-in-chief of Lebanon, Rustom Ghazaleh.

As if Shawkat weren't in enough trouble, Islamic Jihad, a group alleged to have close ties to Damascus and to him in particular, launched its sixth suicide attack in the past 12 months in Tel Aviv on Thursday. Coincidence? A test of the new, transitional Israeli leadership? An invitation to a rumble?

In response to an Islamic Jihad attack in October 2003, Israel struck an empty PFLP training camp outside Damascus, symbolic retaliation but a clear message beware. Left with no credible bilateral response, Syrian Foreign Minister Farouq Al Shara' beseeched the UN for support.

Given his own questionable (to be charitable) testimony to the UN Tribunal investigating the late Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri's assassination, testimony that was soundly refuted by a collection of Lebanese witnesses and even his archrival and former Vice-President Abdul Halim Khaddam, I doubt Shara' will find much sympathy this time around.

A cynical appraisal of the Assads' predicament and recommendations for "next steps" might well include provoking an Israeli strike, preferably harmless. Such analysis might reasonably conclude that an attack would succeed in rallying the Syrian people around the embattled leader, and might even win back a block or two of the Arab street that was lost after Khaddam's damning Al Arabiya interview.

In just as calculating a manner, Israeli leaders may reach the same conclusions.

Indirect message

A strike makes clear to Damascus that with or without Ariel Sharon, the Jewish state will not be undermined; it sends a similar though indirect message to visiting Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, well-timed given the current nuclear stand-off and Syria's support for the Iranian position; it reinforces the military disparity between Syria and Israel; and, perhaps most pertinent given the current negotiations over the fate of the Assad regime, solidifies their hold on power.

Ironically, Tel Aviv has long determined that Israel's national security interests are best served when an Assad is at the helm in Damascus. Should that assessment change, were Israeli analysts and policy makers to determine that the regime's survival is no longer a priority, then the ruling elite is in great jeopardy.

In comparison, UN sanctions will seem welcome.

As if Shawkat's other troubles weren't enough, there's the request of the UN Tribunal investigating the Hariri's assassination for an interview with America's latest "most wanted". Maybe they should consider a group rate on legal aid.

Another brother-in-law Maher Al Assad is also wanted for questioning before the UN Tribunal. Bashar is still deflecting calls for his relatives' testimony as well as for his own.

Yes, yes, I know. They're all innocent. This is a fantastic ruse concocted by Downing Street and the White House, with some help from the Elysee, to toss the Assads aside. Even Kofi Annan, still smarting from his run-in with Bush on Iraq and hoping to make amends, has a supporting role in this con. Only the Chinese and the Russians, with Algerian support, are able to save Syria from this cruel injustice.

If you believe any of that, please seek something other than legal counsel.

Certainly a good percentage of Lebanese are convinced that Damascus had a hand in Hariri's death, as well as the half-dozen or so assassinations and close calls that followed.

Nonsense

Meanwhile Syrians are fed up with the constant outside pressure, a "fear factor" the Assad regime cleverly ratchets up any time the UN Tribunal gets set to make new demands. They might actually believe all that nonsense a few paragraphs ago. That is the great tragedy of the current situation.

Syrians, who have done no wrong, are trapped with a regime that has done plenty. As the noose tightens on the leadership, it strangles the people too. Gone is any hope of an EU Association Agreement; gone, US assistance of any kind, however paltry; gone, the respectability of serving as a tough, but legitimate Arab bulwark against Israeli aggression and American pigheadedness; gone, the prospect of economic liberalisation; gone, Saudi support (optics don't count); gone, hope for the future.

The Assads' "human shield" makes a mockery of Saddam Hussain's.

And just as things couldn't seem to get any worse, Bashar allows a drip of freedom to sprout hopes and dreams of much more to come. None of which ever does. On Wednesday, five of Syria's most well-known dissidents were released from prison. They include independent MP and lawyer Riad Seif.

His original sentence was five years, of which he served more than three, for attempting to alter the constitution and spreading false information that eroded the nation's morale. Of course, the only way to erode "national morale" would be to tell Syrians the awful truth: that they were complicit in their own asphyxiation. The regime used their fear to mask its tyranny.

Sadly, many Syrians will hope that this whiff of change is actually a sign of more to come. They've been duped so many times in the past five years, it is truly cruel and unusual punishment for Bashar to do it again.

He may well release all 500-700 political prisoners if he believes it will win him a reprieve at the UN.

His speech, expected soon, may promote the establishment of new political parties, may resuscitate hopes for moribund economic reforms, may augur a new day in the life of Syrians.

But it will only be a day. Bashar will, once again, squander his people's trust in order to save his own neck. Even more perverse, he will likely get away with it.

- Maggie Mitchell Salem is a political and communications consultant based in Washington, DC. Previously, she was director of communications at the Middle East Institute and a special assistant to former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright.