Marking a historic 75th anniversary of collective defence, the recent North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) Summit held in Washington, DC was once again dominated by discussions on continued allied support for Ukraine, focusing on strengthening a unified response to the ongoing war and reinforcing the alliance’s commitment to Euro-Atlantic security.
In the face of increasing geostrategic competition and the rapid pace of the digital transformation — including AI development, leaders reflected upon the alliance’s next 75 years and beyond, focusing on adapting to the changing global security landscape and the importance of reassessing the alliance’s role in a world shaped by dynamic threats and evolving technology.
To effectively prepare for emerging security challenges, Nato must continue to expand and build upon its three essential core duties as outlined in Nato’s 2022 Strategic Concept: deterrence and defence, crisis prevention and management, and cooperative security.
General Philippe Lavigne, Nato’s Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT), emphasised during the July 2024 Summit that the alliance must enhance its training and interoperability by embracing multi-domain operations, which integrate the alliance’s 360-degree approach to security, ensuring deterrence against all threats and challenges posed to land, air, sea, cyber, and space domains.
This approach should be supported by today’s digital transformation, leveraging advanced technologies to ensure that Nato forces can operate seamlessly together across various environments.
In today’s digitally interconnected world, Nato faces opponents who are increasingly deploying hybrid warfare including disinformation campaigns, cyber and ransomware attacks, and malign political interference. These strategies aim to exploit vulnerabilities, destabilise democratic systems, and erode societal trust and cohesion.
Nato’s AI Strategy
In response to both the risks and opportunities presented by emerging and disruptive technologies, Nato released its updated AI strategy prior to the Washington DC summit.
The initial 2021 version provided the early framework for NATO’s six Principles of Responsible Use (PRUs) for AI in defence and security operations: Lawfulness, Responsibility and Accountability, Explainability and Traceability, Reliability, Governability, and Bias Mitigation.
The updated 2024 AI strategy addresses advances in generative AI and AI-enabled information tools. For the first time, the strategy identifies ‘AI-enabled disinformation, information operations, and gender-based violence’ as areas of concern.
This highlights the growing recognition of AI’s significant impact on society, politics, and ethical considerations. By integrating these new elements, Nato aims to stay ahead of potential threats while ensuring the ethical and responsible use of AI in its operations.
The 2024 strategy outlines additional key areas of focus that warrant Nato’s consideration, including the possible decline in global availability of high-quality public data necessary for training AI models and the computational power required for AI systems which can result in increased energy consumption.
According to the World Bank, the computational power needed to sustain AI’s growth is doubling approximately every 100 days, with the energy consumption related to AI tasks rapidly increasing with an annual growth rate ranging from 26% to 36%. This reality introduces new challenges for Nato, as the organisation aims to reduce collective greenhouse gas emission by at least 45% by 2030, with the goal of becoming net-zero by 2050.
Nato is also actively working to maximise the potential of AI by expanding strategic partnerships with key tech companies including Microsoft, IBM, and Google; defence industry leaders including Thales Raytheon Systems; and various global academic institutions.
These collaborations intend to pool resources and enhance the alliance’s technological and military edge. Additionally, these partnerships aim to foster responsible AI practices and to develop innovative solutions to address emerging risks, including disinformation and misinformation campaigns orchestrated by Nato’s adversaries.
Through advancing AI-enabled platforms and analytical tools in collaboration with industry partners, Nato can strengthen its capability to analyse the vast information landscape and swiftly detect and counter online disinformation efforts. Unchecked disinformation has the potential to erode public trust in mainstream media sources, undermine confidence in government, and exacerbate political polarisation and societal divisions.
Influencing the influencers
In a proactive effort to combat false narratives and disinformation regarding Nato’s relevance, capabilities, and objectives, the alliance invited nearly 30 social media influencers and content creators who have a combined 40 million followers to the DC summit.
The initiative was developed to engage with a younger demographic, particularly those who don’t rely on mainstream media for news, and to raise awareness of Nato’s mission, thereby bolstering crucial public support.
Nato aimed to emphasise the alliance’s crucial role in transatlantic security during a period of global uncertainty and increasing tensions.
Influencers were invited to participate in Nato’s two-day Public Forum, focusing on topics significant to Gen Z, including women’s roles in peace and security, climate and energy policies, and youth perspectives on the implications of the Ukraine conflict.
More by Gina Bou Serhal
A.I. as a Force Multiplier
Looking forward, 2024 could remain a consequential year for the alliance. With the US elections being held in November, former President Trump — who continues to gain momentum, has claimed he would re-evaluate Nato’s purpose and mission if re-elected. Yet now, more than ever, the alliance must remain united.
Likewise, the increasing number of hybrid attacks from Nato’s adversaries since the start of the Ukraine war further undermine Euro-Atlantic security.
By adopting artificial intelligence-assisted decision-making, Nato’s Command and Control can leverage advanced machine-learning algorithms to analyse vast amounts of incoming data -whether from the battlefield, intelligence communities, space, or online.
These AI systems can make predictions about potential outcomes, enabling Command and Control to make better-informed decisions, offering the alliance unmatched capabilities.
In an era of rapid technological advancements, adopting AI enables a more dynamic and informed decision-making process — crucial when confronting threats from adversaries who may not adhere to the same ethical and responsible principles of use.
By integrating AI into the array of Nato’s domains while ensuring interoperability and cohesion among alliance members, the organisation can increase its operational effectiveness and better address emerging threats in a rapidly evolving security landscape.
Gina Bou Serhal is a Senior Researcher with Trends Research & Advisory in Dubai
