In the seemingly endless pursuit of electing Lebanon’s next President, a rare, united front has emerged. Lebanon’s major Christian factions including The Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb Party, and The Free Patriotic Movement, along with 23 independent MP’s have rallied behind technocrat Jihad Azour, who currently serves as the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department.
On paper, Azour reads as a neutral, qualified, and above all — nonsectarian choice to oversee the restructuring of Lebanon’s crippled economy. Before his time with the IMF, Azour held several public and private sector positions including Managing Partner at INVENTIS Partners, an investment management and strategic advisory firm. He also served as a member of the Middle East Advisory Group for the IMF from 2009 to 2016, counselling on global economic developments for the Middle East and Central Asia.
He also held a short stint in Lebanese politics serving as Lebanon’s Finance Minister in 2005-2008, a critical and transformative era for Lebanese politics and its post-war reconstruction. During his term, Azour coordinated the execution of financial reforms, including modernising the country’s tax system and implementing Lebanon’s first value-added tax.
Lebanon's road to recovery
As a result of the country’s current economic free fall, Lebanon’s inflation has reached triple digits, the Lebanese Lira lost more than 98% of its value, and currently 80% of the population live below the poverty threshold.
Azour’s political tenure in Beirut could cast a shadow of doubt among the fatigued and weary Lebanese public, portraying him as yet another politician who helped orchestrate Lebanon’s near-demise. On the other hand, installing a top IMF executive inside Baabda may serve in the country’s best interest to formulate and execute restructuring efforts.
Jihad Azour has affirmed extraordinary efforts need to be made to help Lebanon exit its current crisis. According to recent interviews, Azour believes the first step to recovery is rebuilding trust, both at home and abroad so investors remain confident an economic recovery is feasible. This is no easy task considering Lebanon was just issued an arrest warrant from Interpol for its current Central Bank Governor.
The second component on the road to recovery, according to Azour, involves accelerating reforms — a prerequisite for unlocking IMF funds, and a restructuring of key public sectors including electricity and telecommunications.
The monthly bill for mobile phone service increased five-fold in 2022 with the cost of internet up 50%. Interconnectivity — a once basic necessity has morphed into a luxury many have been unable to afford following sky-high inflation and a depreciation of the Lira.
Likewise, a credible restructuring of Lebanon’s financial system is vital. Azour has repeatedly insisted Lebanon must take an accurate stock on the scale of the losses sustained by the central and commercial banks in Lebanon. Having a firm grip on reality and acknowledging the structural deficiencies that brought Lebanon to this point must be addressed in order to move forward on a sustainable path.
Lebanon’s financial crisis is partly due to Parliamentary divisions which have resulted in a presidential vacuum since October 2022 with MP’s unable to agree on a successor to former President, Michel Aoun.
The caretaker status of Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s cabinet continues to create institutional paralysis for the Lebanese government to implement the comprehensive reform package as requested by the IMF in order to unlock the proposed $3 billion in financial assistance.
Following a recent visit to Lebanon, US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, Barbara Leaf, told reporters “The IMF package is the lifeline. There is just no other way out.”
Irrespective of his past experience, Azour faces an uphill battle to arrive at Baabda. Lebanon’s Shiite blocks, Hezbollah and the Amal Movement have both established a no-vote on Azour although he currently holds a much stronger majority compared to their declared candidate, Suleiman Frangieh, leader of the Marada Movement.
While the growing number of Christian bloc’s and independents supporting Azour continues to gain traction, it is possible the Shiite-duo can throw a wrench in election efforts by boycotting the vote altogether.
Mediocre political excuses
If Parliament does not reach quorum during the upcoming June 14 to elect Lebanon’s next president, equal to two-thirds of the 128 members, the session will be adjourned. With Lebanon’s inflation hitting 270% in June, the Lebanese people cannot withstand yet another stagnant parliament session. Nor do they wish to hear mediocre political excuses on the inability of its elected officials to resuscitate its spiralling economy.
Azour’s opposition includes the Development and Liberation Parliamentary bloc of the Amal Movement, headed by Speaker of the House, Nabih Berri. MP Mohammad Khawaja, a member of the bloc stated in a recent interview that the Christian endorsement of Azour was meant to undermine Franjieh’s candidacy, claiming “Azour does not have a reform vision for Lebanon”.
Hezbollah has echoed similar disinterest, asserting Azour is candidate of ‘challenge and confrontation’ with Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah claiming Azour’s candidacy is an attempt to “gain strength from abroad”.
In an attempt to sway undecided votes at a recent gathering for various political parties, Azour spoke to the crowd, acknowledging a confrontational president would fail during his first test in Parliament, adding he aims to be a president “who carries a rescue project for the country, with everyone’s agreement”.
Lebanon’s economic crisis is a reflection of its own political disarray. If given the opportunity and elected president, Jihad Azour’s legacy could be defined by his unmatched qualifications for the monumental task at hand.
Nonetheless, Lebanon’s fate continues to rest in the hands of its elected members who were voted into Parliament not obstruct quorum, or to prolong the launch of urgently needed reforms, but rather to improve the lives of the Lebanese people who remain at peril as a result of a corrupted system which continually evades culpability.
Gina Bou Serhal is a Researcher with the Strategic Studies Program at Trends Research & Advisory in Dubai. Rahaf Al Khazraji is an Emirati Researcher at Trends Research & Advisory in Abu Dhabi
