Hakimullah's rise an alarming factor

The bombings belied the claim by the government and the security forces that they have broken the back of the militants as a result of the aggressive military operations in Swat and rest of Malakand region and tribal areas in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP).

Though some are pointing fingers at India, in particular its intelligence agency RAW, for sponsoring the attacks in Lahore and funding the Taliban in the tribal areas, the government has been unable to provide any credible evidence to back up these claims. India has denied the allegations and instead blamed Pakistan for its failure to stop infiltration of fighters into Indian Kashmir and bring to justice Hafeez Saeed and the other perpetrators of the Mumbai attacks. It is also accusing Pakistan's intelligence organisation, ISI, over the recent suicide bombing at the Indian embassy in Kabul.

It would take time to establish if the Pakistani militants have any foreign linkages, but there is no doubt that the TTP, under its new leader Hakimullah Mehsud, had publicly threatened attacks against Pakistan's security forces for aligning with America and to avenge his predecessor Baitullah Mehsud's death in a US drone attack on August 5. It appears that the dramatic rise in terrorist attacks in the NWFP, Punjab and Islamabad could be due to the rise of the young Hakimullah. His appointment had alarmed those who knew him as he was far more dangerous and unpredictable than Baitullah. Even more worrying was the fact that Hakimullah was a cousin of Qari Hussain, known as the Ustad-e-Fidayeen, or teacher of the suicide bombers, who has now been given a free hand to plan and execute attacks.

More attacks

One could expect more terrorist attacks in Pakistan both before and after the launch of the military's anticipated offensive in South Waziristan. And the tactics deployed by his men could become even more inventive and daring. The armed forces are under pressure to undertake the planned military action against the TTP in South Waziristan as questions are already being asked both at home and abroad about the reasons for the delay. A further delay could complicate matters even more.

The military is busy sending reinforcements to the target area after having enforced a blockade and is softening the militants' positions through airstrikes and artillery shelling. Deals are also being struck with groups of militants opposed to the TTP and efforts are underway to win over tribal elders and Taliban commanders in North Waziristan and the Wana area in South Waziristan so that they stay neutral in the war against Hakimullah and other fighters from Al Qaida and Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan who are hiding in the area.

Ameer Haider Hoti, the young NWFP Chief Minister from the secular ANP, which is pushing for a decisive military action in South Waziristan, described the looming battle as the "mother of all battles." He could be right as the showdown in South Waziristan would decide the fate of the TTP and set the direction of Pakistan's difficult battle against militancy and extremism.

Rahimullah Yusufzai is a senior journalist based in Peshawar.