GCC needs new Iran strategy

On October 26, 2009, I opined in an article titled ‘Iran's meddling must cease' that Teh-ran interferes in many countries' affairs. For evidence of this, I said, look no further than Iran's nuclear programme and its ambitious attempt to project itself as the major player in the region. I concluded that if it is not careful, Iran could be given a taste of its own medicine.

Since then, however, not much has changed. Iran continues on its track of meddling, enriching uranium and defying UN Security Council resolutions, and it could face severe consequences in the form of crippling sanctions this year.

Iran is aware that the GCC states have repeatedly stated individually and collectively that they oppose any military strike against it and would not allow others to use their territory as launching pads for that purpose. Nevertheless, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Ali Larijani issued a warning to the GCC states last week in Kuwait. He assured them that Iran "does not want to inflict any harm on the GCC states," but argued that the US aimed to distance the Gulf states from Iran for its own benefit. "I believe that for the sake of having new military bases in the region ... and control over its resources, the Americans and Zionists are trying to scare [countries in] the region [into distancing themselves] from Iran. We feel that certain regional groups, in addition to America and the Zionists, are trying to create disputes between Iran and the states in the region. We will not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries."

It was no coincidence that on the same day the Iranian official was threatening the GCC states from Kuwait, Kuwaiti Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Dr Mohammad Al Sabah was warning the P5+1 countries against imposing new and tougher sanctions on Iran. "Any new sanctions against Iran will lead to more tension and unrest in the region," he said.

In sharp contrast, Israeli President Shimon Peres was in Germany railing against Iran, accusing it of being "the centre of international terrorism", seeking to control the region, denying the Holocaust, preventing peace with the Palestinians, destabilising Lebanon and Yemen, and controlling Iraq.

Isn't it odd that the Arab Gulf states tread so carefully with Iran, while others threaten and insult it? Which approach is reaping the greater rewards?

We in the GCC states are used to such provocative remarks and warning shots from across the Gulf. But for such provocation to take place on our own soil, with a senior Iranian official like Larijani having the audacity to break all diplomatic niceties and protocol was bizarre, especially when he patronisingly told us that the US is manipulating us to justify its presence in the region. We don't need the US to put us off Iran when Iran is doing such a good job of it itself.

Found wanting

Iran has for a long time bet on the GCC's lack of a coherent and well articulated, unified strategy and stance against it, because this is a bet that pays off. The GCC states, bilaterally and collectively, continue to pursue cordial relations with Iran, hoping that this will prevent it from menacing them. But this strategy has been found wanting and lacks strategic depth. Iran has responded to the GCC's non-committal approach by spouting bellicose, arrogant rhetoric, meddling in Yemen, lecturing the Saudis and threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Defence Minister Ahmad Vahidi recently stated defiantly that western warships stationed in the Gulf are the "best targets" for the Islamic Republic if its nuclear sites are attacked.

Issuing a warning from Kuwait against the GCC states was not a polite or reassuring move by the Iranians. The Iranian speaker should have sought to use his visit to instill confidence, find common ground and resolve issues such as the demarcation of the continental shelf boundary between Iran and Iraq and the Dorra gas field. Instead, he used the same hostile tone his country has always used against the GCC.

It is high time that the GCC states, which have repeatedly voiced their concerns and rejected the use of military action against Iran, and recently argued against tougher sanctions, formulate a unified, coherent strategy. What are we waiting for? Politics as usual is not working. It is time to change course in order to deal with Iran.

Dr Abdullah Al Shayji is professor of political science at Kuwait University.