From partner to target: How Trump’s policies are squeezing India’s best and brightest

Urgent messages from giant technology companies warning employees on H-1B and H-4 dependent visas not to leave the United States caused near-panic on aircraft as the Trump administration changed the rules, imposing a $100,000 fee (first per year and then in total). The move created total chaos.

While every country in the world is free to change its visa rules, it seemed cruel to do it as a televised spectacle designed for Trump without even a 24-hour delay or lead notice. The initial announcement, later clarified, caused the travel confusion but could have come with a three-month notice.

People with children and spouses back in the USA scrambled to return with virtually no notice until the clarifications arrived. Indian tech workers make up nearly 80 percent of those on the H-1B visa system, so this crackdown affected them disproportionately.

Consider the 50 percent tariff imposed on India by Trump — the highest in the world — and the decision on the Chabahar port. It has been a full-spectrum attack by the Trump administration on Indian interests, and it’s hard not to feel singled out.

Before we unpick the reasons behind what is provoking Trump to come all guns blazing at India, let’s see how much Indian H-1B holders contribute to the US. They contribute billions of dollars in taxes, more billions in fees, and literally trillions to the service industry. With a stroke of a pen, Trump in effect ensured that the next Elon Musk wouldn’t be able to contribute to American innovation because his first employer couldn’t afford the new visa fees.

For 20 years the US wooed India and we had a special strategic partnership which — if one has to put it brutally — is a thing of the past under the Trump administration and its wild policy swings.

Indian-born Americans hold top positions in technology behemoths across Silicon Valley, and my readers are fully aware of that distinguished roll call. The digerati and techarati are disproportionately made up of Indians who excel in technology. One tech leader told me in an interview that the US’s leadership in technology is literally “an India story.”

Initially Trump had promised the techarati that he wouldn’t go after the H-1B visa. But then, Trump changing his mind is hardly a new story.

The total remittance coming into India from non-resident Indians in FY 2025 was $135 billion. This amount covers a whopping 47 percent of India’s trade deficit and represents 10 percent of our balance of payments. Out of this, 28 percent comes from the United States, making it the largest source country for remittances.

So currently the biggest question on India’s mind, as we see the special partnership unravel, is: what went so spectacularly wrong? I spoke to senior leaders in government, technology industry czars and foreign affairs officials to try to understand why India is being singled out.

One thing they are all unambiguous and unanimous about: India is a convenient whipping boy for Trump’s MAGA base with a barely hidden racist undertone. From being a “model minority” to being seen as a group taking away jobs from white Americans, the transition has been dizzying. At the heart of it is huge resentment at Indian economic success (Indian-American median household income $125,000 compared to $65,000 for the average American household), huge success in getting admission to the top colleges, and what is perceived as cultural insularity.

Top leaders and officials say that since China has pushed back against Trump’s punitive policies, India has become a stand-in for being unable to punish China. It’s the same with Russia, which has faced no blowback for actually fighting Ukraine, while India has a 50 percent tariff imposed for buying oil from Russia.

In any case, we will know the full story of what went wrong soon enough — perhaps from Trump on his socials — but for now India is in trouble and we have to emulate China in our dealings with the US.

The most powerful country in the world displaying daily mood swings is extremely disconcerting. But the prescription for India does not change. Indian techies are a brilliant resource for any country lucky enough to have them, and if they decide to come home it will hugely benefit India. We need to clean up our shambolic infrastructure, reform taxes, clean our air and open world-class schools and colleges to get back our best talent and fund them to create multiple Silicon Valleys the way China is incubating tech startups and talent.

Meanwhile, we certainly don’t need to give in to US bullying on trade by prising open fragile Indian farming, which would also be certain political suicide for any party. The US is now in a colonial economic export mode, and nobody wants what Trump has to sell, such as US corn. China sells the US finished goods, and the US seeks to export agricultural goods — the very definition of a colonial export.

Trump has made the world an uncertain place with old convictions unravelling. But if countries play it smartly, we can seek our advantage. After all, how long can we keep sending away our best talent?