Few takers for Iran's theocracy

Predictably enough, Iran has been loudly cheering the mass uprisings in Egypt and before that in Tunisia. As a self-styled leader of Islamic movements in the Middle East and North Africa, Iranian leaders see in these conflicts a chance to get rid of long-standing rivals like Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and undermine US influence in the region.

‘The Dawn of Khomeini in Arab Middle East', gloated one newspaper which reflects the views of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader. Khamenei himself has called the wave of unrest in North Africa "Islamic awakening" and called for a religious government in Egypt.

But regardless of how events turn out in Egypt, Iran is unlikely to play a major role in the future power structure in that part of the world; and by taking a cliched, ideological line toward the developments, it risks alienating both the status quo and the opposition. Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmad Abu Al Geit has said Khamenei's comments "have crossed all red lines," and the Muslim Brotherhood too turned a cold shoulder to the Iranian leader.

Iran has long touted its 1979 revolution as an inspiration for Muslim liberation movements, using anti-American and anti-Israeli rhetoric to win Arab hearts and minds. But such claims increasingly ring hollow in the wake of the brutal suppression of the pro-democracy movement in 2009.

Images of that bloody crackdown are still fresh in public minds to lend any credence to the Iranian government's call for democracy in Egypt or elsewhere. The ruthless beating of demonstrators and journalists in Cairo last week and disruption of internet and mobile phones are all so vividly reminiscent of the carnage that took place in Tehran and other Iranian cities just 18 months ago.

Chilling response

This, undoubtedly, is the reason why leaders of Islamic movements in Egypt and Tunisia have rushed to disassociate themselves from the Iranian revolution and rally behind nationalist and democratic causes. Immediately after Khamenei's speech last Friday, he received a chilling response from the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt: our revolution is an Egyptian people's revolution, not an Islamic revolution.

Tunisian Islamist leader Rashid Gannouchi had already issued his own sobering warning: "I'm neither Khomeini, nor Bin Laden".

There is no doubt that behind Iranian leaders' noisy applause for Arab rebellion lies a deep anxiety about their own future — both as rulers of a divided country and their guardianship of Islam. They understandably fear that the pro-democracy ‘tsunami' in the region may soon spread to Iran and rekindle the smouldering ashes of the protests in that country. This is quite a likely scenario, given the intense power struggle in the Islamic republic and deep dissatisfaction among the Iranian masses.

So it is obvious why Iranian leaders are so keen on seeing political Islam spread throughout the region, something that they have fought so hard for over decades. The rise to power of Islamic movements may give legitimacy to fundamentalism as an alternative system of government and make the Islamic republic feel less isolated as the world's only theocracy.

But this doesn't appear to be the desired outcome in North Africa. Hard as Iranian leaders try to claim mass movements in this part of the world, the latest comments by Islamic Arab leaders echo growing disillusionment with the Iranian Revolution and distrust of the present Iranian leaders, especially since the 2009 crackdown.

Turkey's example

Even if Islamic groups rise to power, it is remote they would follow Iran's brand of fundamentalism, just as Iraq has chosen not to. The Muslim Brotherhood and Gannouchi have both said they identify less with the Islamic republic and are more attuned to Turkey's ruling AK Party, which has proved its commitment to basic principles of freedom and democracy.

Western democracies too are playing their hand more wisely this time around, seeing in the developments a chance to win back Arab sympathy. The Obama administration's unequivocal support for the opposition in both Egypt and Tunis is in sharp contrast with Jimmy Carter's attitude during the Iranian Revolution, when he steadfastly supported the Shah in the face of popular opposition.

This could, in the long haul, improve the US image in the Middle East and undermine support for Iran.

Although Tehran may see some gains from the departure of bitter enemies among Arab heads of state, it may in the long run find itself in a difficult position with its own people.

Indeed, the winds of change in the region has already touched the Islamic republic. Iranian opposition leaders have asked for permission to organise a march in solidarity with Egyptian people, and leaflets are secretly distributed for a big opposition turnout on the anniversary of the Iranian Revolution.

It is yet unclear how fast the ‘tsunami' will catch on, but the day may come soon when Iranian leaders regret wishing to see the back of rulers like Mubarak.

Mehrdad Balali is a journalist and writer living in California. His novel Houri was recently published in New York.