Civil war looms in Yemen

It has been more than a month since Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh returned to Sana'a from Saudi Arabia. The death toll of peaceful protesters in Yemen has gone up to more than 150 in one month alone. It is now clear that Saleh's intention since his return was to take revenge on those who oppose him.

It now seems that the president is likely to hand over power to a military council and has not returned "carrying an olive branch and the dove of peace", as he had promised.

Yemen is witnessing unprecedented violence and excessive use of power by Saleh's forces against peaceful protesters, instead of accepting UN Security Council's resolution adopted recently and start transferring power and implementing the Gulf Cooperation Council's (GCC) peace plan. Sana'a has come to be divided into two zones — one under the protection of Saleh's regime and the other where the defecting General Ali Mohsin Al Ahmar is trying to protect the protesters. This zone is under severe attack by Saleh's forces.

Last week, more than 40 protesters were killed. Among them was Aziza Othman, who become the first woman martyr of the revolution. Five women were also taken hostage by Saleh's forces. Many families have left their homes to stay away from conflict zones.

Does Saleh think the GCC initiative will give him immunity from prosecution for his crimes? Of course not. He has already lost his chance and refuses to sign the GCC deal. Now the youth in Yemen are seeking international assistance to support a second Security Council resolution against Saleh's regime, stronger than the one issued this week. Saleh's government has failed to convince Russia to stand by their side as it did in the case of Syria, and veto any decision in favour of the revolution and Saleh's opponents. But Russia does not have strong business and defence ties with Yemen. On the other hand, the opposition made a successful move by accepting Russia's invitation last week to clarify their stand and garner Moscow's support.

It is ironic that Saleh now demands US and European guarantees in order to sign the GCC initiative after his government lost its hopes for any support from the US and European governments when the UN envoy to Yemen, Jamal Bin Omar, failed to convince him to sign the GCC initiative.

Another beating

Saleh's position took another beating when Tawakul Karman was named the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize. This is a nail in the coffin of Saleh's regime and an international recognition of the peaceful revolution in Yemen.

Tawakul and other pro-democracy activists keep Saleh's regime under pressure by updating international human rights organisations about all violence committed by his regime, demonstrating in front of the United Nations building in New York, and calling on Saleh to be prosecuted before the International Criminal Court for his crimes against humanity.

It is fair enough that Tawakul, who is donating her Nobel Prize money to the state treasury following a regime change in Sana'a, is now calling for an investigation of all overseas assets held by Saleh and his family as well as by members of his government. Saleh ruled Yemen for more than 33 years. He came from a poor family, and his salary as President for these years does not justify the wealth he has acquired.

Is it not outrageous to see a third of Yemenis suffering from hunger while the president's son owns multi-million dollar apartments in Washington, as has been published in Foreign Policy? Real estate records show that in 2007 a man named Ahmad Ali Saleh bought four condominiums in a luxury building in Friendship Heights, right near one of the US capital's swankiest shopping areas. He paid $5.5 million — in cash — for the condos. He also owns a property assessed at about $220,000 in Fairfax, Virginia, bought in the 1990s.

It is time for the UN and the international community to stop Saleh. He is leading Yemen, the poorest nation in the Middle East, into a civil war. Unfortunately for everyone in GCC, civil war in Yemen would have no limitations whatsoever. Let your imagination run wild, although be warned it likely won't lead anywhere pretty.