Can Tsvangirai eclipse Mugabe?

Ever since Morgan Tsvangirai founded the Movement for Democratic Change exactly nine years ago, President Robert Mugabe has labelled him a "puppet of the British" who would "never" be allowed to rule Zimbabwe.

The very fact that this alleged "puppet" will now become prime minister - and reliable reports suggest that his followers will form a majority in the new cabinet - marks a humiliating climbdown for Mugabe.

His 28-year rule has been one long, ruthless quest for unchallenged power. Now, Mugabe is being forced to share authority with an opponent he once derided.

That is the good news.

But many Zimbabweans are deeply suspicious of power-sharing governments - and with good reason. They have been formed twice before and both turned out to be sham agreements disguising Mugabe's dominance.

The first government after independence in 1980 was a power-sharing arrangement, with Joshua Nkomo, the leader of the Zapu party, as home affairs minister. He was quickly sidelined and humiliated and the deal collapsed within two years.

Revived

It was revived in 1987 when Nkomo agreed to abolish Zapu and rejoin the government. This proved to be his political death warrant and he was immediately eclipsed by Mugabe.

Will Tsvangirai suffer the same fate? On the face of it, he will have a far stronger hand and a better chance of wielding real executive authority, in line with his mandate in the presidential election.

Tsvangirai will be prime minister and his allies will probably have 13 places in a 31-member cabinet. Another wing of the MDC will have three ministers, giving the opposition a bare majority of one.

But Mugabe will continue to chair the cabinet. Meanwhile, officials believe that Tsvangirai will be in charge of a separate "council of ministers". Which body proves to be more powerful remains to be seen.

In practice, however, the cabinet has never counted for much in Zimbabwe. Real power has rested with Mugabe alone. When the first invasions of white-owned farms happened eight years ago, the full cabinet gathered while the president was away at a summit in Cuba.

The ministers decided to stop the occupations and order the police to clear the squatters. Unsure of Mugabe's stance, the police simply ignored the ministers. As soon as the president returned, he countermanded the cabinet's decision.

More recently, the balance of power in Zimbabwe has shifted dramatically. The generals and security chiefs sitting on the Joint Operations Command have, in effect, assumed day to day control of the government.

During this year's elections, they ensured that Mugabe stayed in power after his defeat in the contest's first round and then masterminded a terror campaign against the MDC.

The Reserve Bank has become another key centre of power. As the economy has succumbed to hyperinflation, all notions of proper accounting have gone out of the window.

The national budget is now irrelevant and the Reserve Bank simply prints money to keep the government afloat. If Mugabe keeps control of the army and of the Reserve Bank, he will probably remain the most powerful man in Zimbabwe. Using these levers, he may prove able to contain Tsvangirai and veto his policies.

But Mugabe is no longer the force he once was. At the age of 84, everyone believes this will be his last term as president. Even in the normal course of events, this fact alone would lead to a gradual reduction in his power. Now that his chief opponent has forced his way into the government, this process will be accelerated.

With a majority in the cabinet - and a narrow majority in parliament -Tsvangirai has real political assets. While he has made many mistakes in the past, he has recovered poise and focus in the last few weeks.

If he plays his cards skillfully, he could be the first opposition leader to enter Mugabe's government - and eclipse the president.