Can Al Jaafari unify Iraq?

After weeks of dispute within the bloc of Shiite Islamist politicians over who would lead Iraq's next government, on Sunday they decided that Ebrahim Al Jaafari should keep his job as the country's prime minister.

Al Jaafari won the Shiite nomination by a one-vote margin over current Vice-President Adil Abdul Mahdi, virtually cementing his position in the powerful role for the next four years.

Al Jaafari's nomination won't be official until a new government is formed, something that looks like it is to be weeks away, at least.

While the selection of Al Jaafari by the most powerful bloc in the new parliament is an important step in forming that government, his appointment could prove to be a significant stumbling block in negotiations among Shiites, Kurds and Sunni Arabs.

Leaders of the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), the Shiite bloc that won 47 per cent of the seats in Iraq's December 15 election, have repeatedly promised to form a middle-of-the-road government designed to cool Iraq's sectarian and ethnic tensions.

And Al Jaafari pledged to work with all Iraqi groups to form a government that will serve "the great interests of Iraq".

But during his year in power, Al Jaafari, leader of the Dawa (or Islamic Call) party, has become one of the country's most polarising and divisive politicians.

Many Sunni Arabs blame him for the murder and torture of alleged insurgents by the country's Shiite-led security services; Kurds dislike him for a war of words between him and Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani last year; secular Iraqis and the US have been opposed to his advocacy for strengthened Islamic law here; and many average Iraqis are frustrated that the public face of ongoing economic and security failures will keep his job.

Talabani told reporters on Sunday that he wouldn't support a government led by Al Jaafari unless it gives a cabinet post to Iraqi List's Eyad Allawi, a US-backed secularist.

But last year, when forming Iraq's current government, Al Jaafari refused to accede to the same Kurdish demand, angry that Allawi supported easing up on the country's de-Baathification programme.

"The Kurdish Coalition will not take part in the coming government unless the Iraqi List takes part in it,'' Talabani told reporters after meeting with US Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad.

Modesty

The dapper Al Jaafari, who once refused to shake US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's hand out of his sense of Islamic modesty, was the choice of UIA officials after weeks of often heated debate.

UIA officials say that the swing votes for Al Jaafari's victory were provided by followers of the firebrand cleric Moqtada Al Sadr, whose Mahdi Army has fought pitched battles with US forces on at least two occasions.

Sadr continues to demand a fast withdrawal of US forces from Iraq and says he supports armed resistance if that doesn't happen.

He's also set to solidify his transformation from a rabble rouser with a private army behind him into a powerful politician.

His movement controls three ministries in the current government, and is hoping to see that number increase to five in reward for backing Al Jaafari.

Meanwhile, having lost the premiership, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), who selected Mahdi, is likely to dig in its heels on the ministries it currently controls, particularly the contentious Ministry of the Interior, which controls the police, paramilitary squads like the feared Wolf Brigade and domestic intelligence.

Allegations of torture and abuse by Interior Ministry officials, currently led by SCIRI member Bayan Jabr have come fast and furious in the past year, and have been frequently substantiated.

Khalilzad has pressed hard for the ministry to be kept out of the group's hands in the next government, and Sunni Arab politicians have said continued SCIRI control of the ministry will lead them to refuse to join a coalition government.

Nevertheless, Hadi Al Amiri, current leader of the Badr Brigade, says that SCIRI will not give up control of the Interior Ministry, saying the past abuse of the ministry by Saddam Hussain's Sunni Arab-lead government makes it important they held the post to protect themselves.

Al Jaafari, a physician, spent years in exile in Iran and Britain before returning to his homeland after the 2003 US-led invasion.

Al Jaafari's government had been widely criticised for failing to improve Iraq's crumbling infrastructure or deal effectively with the Sunni-led insurgency. Al Jaafari's supporters had complained of infighting within the dominant Shiite alliance.