Bihar’s poll puzzle: Discord on both sides of the divide

With barely a couple of weeks to go for the first phase of the Bihar election, the Congress finally came out and backed the Rashtriya Janata Dal’s (RJD) Tejashwi Yadav as the alliance’s chief ministerial face. In a move that was completely inexplicable, the grand old party was, for some reason, refusing to endorse Tejashwi’s leadership until now. This is believed to be the key reason why a proper seat sharing agreement could not be reached between the allies resulting in several “friendly fights”.

Senior Congress leaders have been at a loss to explain the stand of the party leadership. They point out no one else could be the chief ministerial face for Bihar except Tejashwi. So what was the need to be difficult about backing him in public? The worry is that as a result of the dithering and the lack of a proper seat sharing agreement, the momentum that the opposition had in the run-up to the elections, may have been lost to the NDA.

It is a phenomenon of political harakiri that is not unique to the Bihar election. In poll after poll, the INDIA bloc has made headlines for infighting and a lack of unity. The Congress has been a difficult partner with several smaller allies across states. In Bihar, the Congress has been more upbeat by the good reception to Rahul Gandhi’s voter adhikar yatras. But they have not been a major political player in the state for decades and pragmatism means ceding space when required. That is, however, not how senior Congress leaders think. As the only pan-India opposition party, they believe they deserve a bigger share of the pie no matter what a state’s unique political situation may be, where they may not have won more than a few seats for years.

The tensions in Bihar have led to a falling-out with another crucial ally, the JMM of Jharkhand, which is furious at how they have been treated. It was veteran Congress leader Ashok Gehlot who was rushed to break the impasse in Bihar, while Rahul Gandhi’s man in the hot seat as in-charge for Bihar, Krishna Allavaru, has earned the wrath of several party leaders who are not happy with his style of functioning and ticket distribution. His corporate background and a different approach to political work has caused much pain in the Bihar Congress.

But it makes you wonder - what has the opposition been doing all these months when the timing of the Bihar election was not a national secret. Why does poll strategy have to wait till the last minute, why are the allies scrambling for seats barely making nomination deadlines?

This time, the tensions between allies are not restricted to the Mahagathbandan of the opposition alone. In the National Democratic alliance (NDA), there is a clear attempt by the BJP to take the upper hand over Nitish Kumar, as reflected in the equal number of seats the two parties are contesting. Also, the BJP has not publicly backed Nitish for the chief minister’s post should they win. It is no secret that if the BJP does better in the polls, they will replace Nitish in a heartbeat, even if he is the one who leads them into victory. Look what the BJP did to Eknath Shinde in Maharastra, who ended up sulking and settling for the deputy chief minister’s job. Or Shivraj Chouhan who was removed from the top job despite a record win in Madhya Pradesh.

In more tensions for the NDA, another ally, the Rashtriya Lok Morcha chief and former Union minister Upendra Kushwaha, openly said all was not well in the alliance after differences over ticket distribution.

This Bihar election is crucial for the Janata Dal-United (JD-U), which has slowly eroded over the years, and for the BJP which is seeking a major expansion in a state of the Hindi heartland that it has not been able to win on its own. For the RJD it is the first major test of Tejashwi Yadav’s leadership out of the shadows of his father. For the Congress, an opportunity to make some gains after so long on the margins. As tensions in both alliances show, many twists and turns could lie ahead. Bihar is definitely not boring.