A tale of two Ayalons

Two men called Ayalon have achieved considerable prominence in Israel. I do not know whether they are brothers, cousins or more distant relatives but, at any rate, although they have the same name, their views differ widely.

One is a hardliner, the other a peacenik, which is a reminder that Israeli opinion is far from monolithic. This, in itself, is reason to hope that some form of Arab-Israeli understanding may one day be reached.

Admiral Ami Ayalon - small in stature but broad of vision - is a former commander of the Israeli Navy (1992-1996), who was named head of Shin Beth (1996-2000), Israel's internal security service, some months after the murder of prime minister Yitzhak Rabin by a Jewish fanatic.

Then something strange happened. Perhaps as a result of the years he spent arresting and oppressing Palestinians, he had a change of heart and evolved into one of Israel's most prominent and liberal advocates of a peace settlement with the Palestinians.

At next February's Labour Party primaries, Ami Ayalon intends to try to wrest the leadership of the party from Amir Peretz who, as defence minister in Ehud Olmert's government, has been widely discredited for his calamitous conduct of the Lebanon war.

In other words, Ayalon hopes to rescue the Labour Party from the grip of the right and bring it back to a moderate left-of-centre position, from which peace negotiations with the Arabs could be envisaged.

Dani Ayalon is a very different man. He has recently completed a four-year-term as ambassador in Washington, which, from Israel's point of view, is by far the most important diplomatic post in the world, because the alliance with Washington is Israel's lifeline.

His task in Washington was to make sure the alliance remained rock-solid. Appointed to the post by former prime minister Ariel Sharon, his job was not only to woo the Congress, the intelligence community, the military, the many powerful Jewish groups, the media and the right-wing think tanks, but also - and most importantly - to forge close personal friendships with President George W. Bush, Vice-President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and everyone else in Washington that counts.

It was a very big job and Dani Ayalon is generally thought to have done it well.

In an interview on November 19 with the Israeli daily Ma'ariv, Dani Ayalon revealed himself to be an unconditional champion of the American alliance and a stern critic of those in the Israeli defence establishment who sold sensitive military equipment to China behind America's back, thereby incurring Washington's displeasure. He advocates total Israeli candour with the indispensable American ally.

In a phrase which might cause some surprise, Dani Ayalon describes Bush as "a man of vision with a broad worldview".

He is convinced Bush will not allow Iran to go nuclear. He predicts that Bush will first try political methods to pressure Iran to give up its nuclear programme. If they fail, Bush will resort to sanctions, then to a naval blockade and finally to air strikes.

"The way Bush sees it," Dani Ayalon says "ayatollahs with nuclear bombs is an intolerable combination that threatens the existing world order, which is why he will not let this happen on his shift".

Different views

Ami Ayalon holds very different views. Together with Sari Nusseibeh, a leading Palestinian intellectual and president of Al Quds University in Occupied Jerusalem, he launched a peace initiative some years ago in which they called jointly for a two-state solution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict on the basis of the 1967 borders, with Jerusalem as the capital of both states.

The Palestinian refugees would exercise their "right of return" within the future Palestinian state, while Jewish colonists in the occupied territories would return to Israel.

Recent events, such as the war in Lebanon, have lent urgency to Ami Ayalon's views. He dismisses Israeli "unilateralism" as unworkable; he argues that military force alone cannot defeat terrorism and fundamentalism; and he calls for Israel to pay greater attention to the Arab peace plan of March 2002.

The international community, he says, should help create the conditions for Israelis and Palestinians to return to the negotiating table and should provide security guarantees to both sides.

If Israel fails to deal with the Palestinians under their present leadership, he warns, it will find itself confronted with Al Qaida. It is time, he says, for Israel to take its own destiny in hand.

If Israel wants to live at peace with its Arab neighbours, it would do well to listen to Ami Ayalon's ideas, rather than rely entirely on the United States for its future welfare and security.

Patrick Seale is a commentator and author of several books on Middle East affairs.