A shift towards diplomacy

Recently President George W. Bush finally told the US public and the world how he plans to achieve the victory in Iraq that has eluded him for the past two-and-a-half years. Some of the benchmarks he provided there for what constitutes "success" in Iraq were good ones, though simply by articulating them, he underlined how very far the United States still has to go.

I found the president's speech generally unconvincing. But at the working diplomatic level inside Iraq his administration has recently started to jettison some burdensome ideology and is pursuing much more levelheaded and constructive policies.

It remains to be seen whether those shifts can help the administration to avoid disaster in Iraq in 2006.

Among the benchmarks that Bush spelled out in his speech was this longer-term goal: "An Iraq that is peaceful, united, stable, democratic and secure, where Iraqis have the institutions and resources they need to govern themselves justly and provide security for their country." Unfortunately, though, Iraq is still very far from being peaceful, stable, or secure.

Regarding democracy, nationwide elections will again be held today. But participation is expected even more than in last January's poll to be along highly sectarian and ethnic lines. That fact, allied to the rapid move the recent constitutional talks made toward fragmentation of the country, means that preserving an Iraq that is in any meaningful way "united" now looks just about impossible.

Inhumane and violent process

As we know from India, Bosnia and elsewhere, the breakup of a country can be an inhumane and violent process. Already in Baghdad and other parts of Iraq, vicious campaigns of ethnic and sectarian "cleansing" have been under way for some time now.

The 275-member parliament elected will be important for two reasons. It has a term of four years and thus it should have an increasing role in governing the country. But long before any significant US draw down from Iraq, the new parliament will be negotiating the 55 portions of the new constitution on which agreement has so far proved impossible.

Is a leadership committed to Iraqi unity likely to emerge from next week's elections? Probably not. Two prominent candidates have positioned themselves as "unifiers": veteran pro-American politician Ahmad Chalabi, and former interim prime minister Eyad Allawi. Both have many flaws as candidates. Then last weekend, the powerful Shiite spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani publicly urged his followers (1) to vote, and (2) to avoid voting for any party that is secular, or small. That edict will sway millions of Shiites to vote for the religious-Shiite "mega-list" the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA). And given that Shiites make up more than 60 per cent of the voters, the edict almost certainly dooms the chances of the much smaller, "national unity" lists headed by Allawi or Chalabi.

The UIA looks set to win most of the seats allocated to the heavily Shiite south and centre of the country. In the northeast, the coalition of Kurdish parties looks similarly poised to win. Sunni Arab sectarian parties may win most or all of the seats allocated to the three majority-Sunni provinces.

Supporters of decentralisation

In the constitutional negotiations that will follow the elections, the Kurds will support further decentralisation of the Iraqi state, and the Sunnis will strongly oppose it. Given that Iraq's Sunnis have many links with nearby Arab countries, while the Shiites have many links with weighty neighbour Iran, if there's a serious rift inside Iraq over the extent of the country's decentralisation the scene might be set for a broader regional confrontation. It is within this tense situation that US Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad has been given new leeway to negotiate ways to avoid further escalation.

In a complex situation like that in Iraq, dialogue with all interested parties is always a far better course than escalation and the issuing of shrill threats of further "regime change" around the region.

Who knows how or whether even Khalilzad's smart new diplomacy can help reduce the tensions in Iraq and the region. But with 150,000 US troops placed as tempting targets throughout Iraq, let's hope he can succeed. Diplomacy, much more than raw military force, now looks like the administration's only true "Plan for Victory".

- Helena Cobban is writing a book on violence and its legacies.