A driverless future: How autonomous cars will reshape mobility in the Middle East

Technology surprises us every day with what surpasses our imagination, intertwining with the details of our daily lives and the ways we live on this abundant planet — especially when it helps address global crises, reduces risks to human life, and allows activities to be carried out without fatal errors. This is precisely the case with self-driving cars, which represent one of the key gateways to the green transition — protecting the planet and enabling adaptation to climate change.

Self-driving vehicles are typically distinguished by their energy efficiency and their ability to maintain optimal driving patterns that reduce harmful emissions. We are on the verge of a revolution on the roads, where cars no longer need drivers. Level 5 automation will provide full autonomy, allowing vehicles to perform all driving tasks. We are not far from reliable self-driving cars, as today’s vehicles are equipped with advanced sensors and high data-processing capabilities. Autonomous cars rely on a combination of cameras and radars supported by machine learning algorithms that enable them to perceive their surroundings and make real-time decisions.

Self-driving cars can also communicate with each other to coordinate speeds and improve traffic flow, which reduces congestion and enhances transport efficiency. While traditional vehicles do not support the comfort of the elderly, self-driving cars provide safe and reliable transportation for seniors and people with disabilities who cannot drive.

Technological advancements have given rise to smart cars, as automakers have integrated AI-powered navigation, autonomous driving features, and enhanced safety systems into new models. With the global shift toward green transition, electric cars have become a preferred choice for many, encouraged by government incentives such as expanded charging infrastructure and tax exemptions in certain regions.

In the Middle East, the automobile market has undergone transformations shaped by economic growth, government policies, and consumer preferences. The market began expanding in the mid-20th century, fuelled by the oil boom. In the 1990s and early 2000s, it was influenced by changes in consumer preferences, regional manufacturing, and the adoption of fuel-efficiency and safety systems. With the emergence of digital transformation and sustainability goals, the region witnessed the introduction of electric vehicles, with countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia leading the adoption.

Today, roads and policies are paving the way for the spread and integration of autonomous vehicles with artificial intelligence. The autonomous vehicle market in the Middle East has seen movement in recent years, with government support and investment playing a pivotal role in their adoption — especially amid frequent accidents and rising demand for self-driving vehicles. With governments focusing on developing infrastructure and policies to support autonomous vehicle technology, the market is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years. This aligns with efforts to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons and to implement green mobility systems — making autonomous vehicles a key part of the green transition.

Several countries in the region are aligning their efforts toward adopting autonomous vehicles. In 2023, the UAE granted its first national licence for self-driving cars to the Chinese company WeRide, with a goal to make 25% of its transport system fully autonomous by 2030. In 2024, the UAE government signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the technology company Einride to deploy a fleet of 200 autonomous trucks, 2,000 electric trucks, and a comprehensive charging infrastructure. The Chinese company Baidu also signed a cooperation agreement with Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority to test and launch autonomous driving services, with an ambitious plan to deploy 1,000 fully autonomous vehicles on Dubai’s roads by 2028. Notably, the transport sector in the UAE accounts for 10 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually.

Meanwhile, Bahrain, Turkey, and Israel are preparing for the shift toward autonomous mobility. Saudi Arabia has enacted a Roads Law focused on upgrading existing road infrastructure and unifying standards to facilitate autonomous vehicle adoption. Qatar announced a five-year plan in 2023 to regulate self-driving vehicles as part of its environmentally conscious smart transport system.

As Middle Eastern countries increasingly focus on the green transition, autonomous vehicles are shaping the future of mobility at a time when the world is accelerating its shift to green energy and confronting the climate crisis caused by global warming. However, the spread of autonomous vehicles depends on geography and environmental conditions. In 2023, 14 million new electric vehicles were registered globally, bringing the total number to over 40 million. Yet, more than 90% of these sales were concentrated in Europe, China, and the United States.

In the Middle East, the major transition toward electric vehicles began when the UAE registered 35,000 new EVs in 2023 — representing 3% of total car sales. The country continues to pursue its goal of having half of all vehicles on its roads powered by electricity by mid-century. To achieve this, the UAE is developing legislative frameworks and building a comprehensive network of charging stations nationwide, creating a favourable environment for green-powered cars.

With the momentum toward electric vehicles building in the Middle East, attention is now turning to the future, where autonomous vehicles represent a key milestone. However, challenges remain, including infrastructure readiness (roads, charging stations, and communications) and technological concerns. Much work is still required to prepare the ground for the localisation and operation of autonomous vehicles across the region.

China currently leads in research and development of autonomous vehicles and is rapidly expanding into international markets to make the technology widely accessible. In contrast, the United States has seen setbacks in development due to accidents involving smart vehicles — though there remains strong faith in Tesla. However, its automated systems still require human driver oversight.

The integration of self-driving cars into ride-hailing and transport services is already becoming a reality, but cost remains a major barrier to widespread adoption. Some people are also reluctant to use autonomous vehicles due to safety concerns. Despite these challenges, the global autonomous vehicle market is projected to reach approximately $182 billion by 2035, with GCC countries expected to capture around $19 billion of that total. Autonomous taxis and buses — alongside passenger drones — will drive this transformation, especially as smart cities and green mobility systems expand.

Transportation alone accounts for about 23% of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, making the shift to green mobility essential for preserving the planet. Autonomous vehicles hold tremendous potential, especially as road accidents claim around 1.2 million lives annually and injure 20-50 million people each year, according to the United Nations. These realities provide strong incentives for the growth of the autonomous vehicle market in the Middle East — and for the broader embrace of digitization and sustainability.

Hessa Abdulla Al Nuaimi is a Researcher at Trends Research & Advisory