Kazakhstan Pivots Beyond Oil: $11bn investment drive, Gulf ties, renewable energy push

What are your key priorities?

We developed an ambitious strategy for 2022-2026. The strategy targets nearly $11 billion of investment, with a planned investment pipeline for 2026.

We also see strong mutual investment interest between Central Asia and the Gulf. EDB should serve as a bridge to enable cross-regional investment and support diversification beyond oil and gas. Ultimately, as a development bank, our mission is sustainable growth.

How do you sustain your investment pace?

We maintain a high-quality portfolio with almost zero non-performing loans, and we can invest roughly the equivalent of one bank capital per year, about $2.5 billion annually, including four consecutive years of investing more than $1 billion per year in Kazakhstan. This pace is higher than typical multilateral development banks, which often invest about 0.4 to 0.5 times their capital annually.

Kazakhstan is placing export diversification and deeper Gulf ties at the centre of its strategy to grow its role as a regional trade hub. Appointed Minister of Trade and Integration in 2023, Arman Shakkaliyev is driving a shift beyond raw materials toward higher-value goods and investment-led growth.

“My main goal as minister is to promote exports, not only raw materials but also food, agro-products and industrial goods,” he says. With more than 80% of China–Europe trade flows crossing Kazakhstan, the country is positioning itself as a land gateway connecting major markets across Europe, Asia and the Gulf.

Accelerating momentum in bilateral ties with the UAE has seen over 20 agreements signed, worth around $5 billion, and a target of $1 billion in trade. “Our industrial potential is enormous, supported by abundant raw materials across multiple sectors,” Shakkaliyev says. “The recent free trade agreement has reduced average tariffs from 5% to 0.6%, creating a strong incentive to expand trade with the UAE.”

What are your strategic goals?

The main goal and priority is energy security. We have set a goal to add 26 GW of energy-producing capacity by 2035. We rely on traditional energy sources, but of this 26 GW, around 8.5 GW is from renewables. We have already signed contracts with major companies such as Masdar for 1 GW of wind power.

Masdar is a real success story of how two partners separated by a long distance can find each other and build a strong dialogue.

What competitive advantages does Kazakhstan offer?

Gas chemistry and petrochemicals are our best example, as we invest in large-scale, high-value projects such as polypropylene and polyethylene that require significant capital and advanced technologies not widely available in the region. Our investment portfolio is built around becoming one of the key global producers of these finished products.