Will Indian rupee soon hit 24 against dirham?

Dubai: The Indian Rupee dropped to another lowest ever point today, at 23.82 to the dirham (87.51 against dollar). It also raises the real possibility of the rupee breaching the 24 mark to dirham well before most analyst forecasts.

It extends the slide for the INR, which has deepened particularly after early November, with the US Presidential election and the re-entry of Donald Trump. The dollar's been on a strong footing since, and which has put additional strain on the INR-USD.

This month alone, the INR depreciated by nearly 1 rupee against the dollar (USD), from the 86.64 on January 31, 2025.

Clearly, the rupee remains at an extremely favourable level when it comes to remittance possibilities for UAE's Indian expats.

“It has been a challenging period for the Indian rupee as it continues to face a downward trend against the US dollar," said Antony Jos, Executive Director at Joyalukkas Exchange.

"With Ramadan around the corner, we can anticipate a surge in remittance activity during the festive season. The INR remittance rates present a favorable opportunity for those sending money back home."

"The latest rupee drop is a bit of a surprise because many in the FX market was expecting it to be different," said Neelesh Gopalan, senior FX analyst at a Dubai fintech. "That was because the exit polls for the Delhi elections was deemed as market-friendly.

"But it's not how things are shaping up this morning."

Tomorrow, the Reserve Bank of India is expected to announce a rate cut and continue the process. But India's inflation is still above the central bank's target, which could mean RBI takes a more gradual approach to rate cuts like its peer in the US, the Fed.

What's been a concern for market watchers is that the RBI has not signaled its plans for the rupee. Is it fine with current levels, or will there be some serious market intervention to prop the INR from the depths?

Tomorrow's meeting should provide some direction. Failing that, expect more pressure on the INR as the dollar runs riot.