Manila condo glut: Why Bay Area is the hottest new address in town — is it time for OFWs to invest?

Manila: Bay City here is quickly becoming the metro’s hottest new residential playground.

Waterfront views? Check. Mall of Asia vibes? Double check.

Now, for the tea: Bad news? Prices are rising, traffic’s catching up, and competition’s heating.

Good news? You’re still (just barely) early to the party.

Whether you’re house-hunting, investing, or just daydreaming, Bay City’s boom is hard to ignore.

First, let’s tackle the bad news: Bay City’s vacancy rate is projected to hit 56.5% by end-2025, the highest in the National Capital Region (16 cities + 1 municipality comprising Metro Manila). 

Developers are undaunted: Yes, there’s a condo supply glut – especially in mid-market segment. But it's not expected to stay for long. 

How so? A number of factors: strategic location, infrastructure development, and evolving market dynamics. Then there's the build-and-they-will-come mindset.

Let’s break it down:

The Manila Bay area benefits from its prime location.

It is situated along major thoroughfares such as Roxas Boulevard, EDSA Extension, and Macapagal Boulevard, with excellent transport links including proximity to LRT-1 Baclaran and MRT-3 Taft Avenue stations, as well as direct airport access via the NAIA Expressway – and (by extension) the Manila Skyway, which connects the northern and southern ends of the capital. 

This connectivity makes it highly attractive for residents who desire easy access to business districts, the NAIA airport, and leisure destinations like the SM Mall of Asia complex.

Another potential come-on: close proximity to the upcoming $4-billion Bataan-Cavite Interlink Bridge, set to cross Manila Bay, with civil works kicking off in a few days (July 2025).

Bay City hosts iconic mixed-use developments such as SM Mall of Asia, Aseana City, and Entertainment City. These projects are masterplanned developments combining residential, commercial (BPOs), retail, and entertainment facilities in a single area. 

It’s also close to major embassies and Manila’s cruise ship dock. The country’s biggest events (concerts, conferences, exhibitions) are being hosted in the area.

The integrated communities appeal to modern urban dwellers looking for convenience and lifestyle amenities within walking distance, according to a Housing Interactive market analysis.

While the Bay Area is experiencing a high residential vacancy rate — projected to reach 56.5% by the end of 2025, the highest in Metro Manila — developers continue to complete new units, averaging 5,800 annually between 2025 and 2027. 

This oversupply is partly a legacy of the Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGOs) boom, which inflated demand but left behind excess inventory after the sector’s contraction. 

Nevertheless, the continued delivery of new units reflects confidence in the area’s long-term potential. It’s part of the “build-and-they-will-come” formula.

Developers are adjusting to the oversupply situation by slowing down launches compared to the 2017–2019 peak when annual completions averaged 13,000 units. 

The Bay Area itself is expected to account for about 34% of new condominium completions in Metro Manila from 2025 to 2027, surpassing other key hubs like Ortigas, Alabang, and Fort Bonifacio, as per Colliers. 

Why are the numbers skewed in the Bay Area’s favour? 

For one, this concentration of supply is driven by ongoing investments and the availability of large land parcels suitable for high-density residential projects. It is also thanks in no small part to government-led reclamation projects.

Condominium sale prices in parts of the Bay City, such as Parañaque, range between Php80,000 ($1,412) and Php130,000 ($2,295) per square metre, making it competitive relative to other upscale districts. 

Currently, rental rates are under downward pressure due to the high vacancy, offering opportunities for investors and tenants seeking value.

Interestingly, demand dynamics are shifting as middle-class buyers increasingly turn to government-backed financing programs like Pag-IBIG, both within and outside Metro Manila.

But while demand is still sluggish, and prices are barely budging, there’s another bit of good news: Interest rates are coming down. 

On June 20, the BSP cut rates further on the overnight deposit and lending facilities to 4.75% and 5.75%, respectively, and analysts are betting on at least another 25 bps cut. Colliers says that could breathe life back into the housing market — eventually.

A key challenge: the oversupply of mid-market condominiums. 

Approximately half of the 40,000 unsold units in Metro Manila belong to this segment, leading to a slowdown in sales as buyers delay purchases anticipating better deals. 

To attract buyers, many offer lenient payment terms, such as no down payment before moving in and extended payment schedules. The luxury and high-end condominium market, however, remains more resilient.

Given the factors cited above, overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) thinking of investing in property may find it an opportune time to look into property as a long-term intestment.

The Bay Area’s emergence as Metro Manila’s largest residential hub is not a coincidence; rather, it’s a result of deliberate infrastructure development, strategic urban planning, and market forces recalibrating (post the POGO-induced boom). 

While the high vacancy rate signals caution, the area’s connectivity, integrated developments, and evolving lifestyle appeal position it well for future demand recovery.

Another encouraging sign: given the attractive promotions (i.e. no-downpayment move-in) a moderate recovery of the residential market has been seen, with increased condominium demand, as per Colliers.

Time for OFWs to move in?

Well, the shift away from BGC reflects broader urban decentralisation trends and the search for larger, well-connected communities offering diverse amenities in close proximity to each other.