New York: For Bitcoin, there’s only been one constant recently: decline after decline after decline. And the superlatives have piled up really quickly.
With the Federal Reserve intending to withdraw stimulus from the market, riskier assets the world over have suffered. Bitcoin, the largest digital asset, lost as much as 9 per cent Friday and dropped below $38,000 to its lowest level in six months. Since its peak in November, it has lost over 40 per cent of its value. Other digital currencies have suffered just as much, if not more, with Ether and meme coins mired in similar drawdowns.
Bitcoin’s decline since that November high has wiped out more than $570 billion in market value, and roughly $1.17 trillion has been lost from the aggregate crypto market. While there have been much larger percentage drawdowns for both Bitcoin and the aggregate market, this marks the second-largest ever decline in dollar terms for both, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
“It gives an idea of the scale of value destruction that percentage declines can mask,” wrote Bespoke analysts in a note. “Crypto is, of course, vulnerable to these sorts of selloffs given its naturally higher volatility historically, but given how large market caps have gotten, the volatility is worth thinking about both in raw dollar terms as well as in percentage terms.”
Twists and turns
With the Fed’s intentions rocking both cryptocurrencies and stocks, a dominant theme has emerged in the digital-asset space: cryptos have twisted and turned in nearly exactly the same way as equities have.
“Crypto is reacting to the same kind of dynamics that are weighing on risk-assets globally,” said Stephane Ouellette, chief executive and co-founder of institutional crypto-platform FRNT Financial. “Unfortunately for some of the mature projects like BTC, there is so much cross-correlation within the crypto asset class it’s almost a certainty that it falls, at least temporarily in a broader alt-coin valuation contraction.”
Crypto-centric stocks also dropped on Friday, with Coinbase Global Inc. at one point losing nearly 16 per cent and falling to its lowest level since its public debut in the spring of 2021, Bloomberg data show.
MicroStrategy Inc. tumbled 18 per cent while the Securities and Exchange Commission said the company can’t strip out Bitcoin’s wild swings from the unofficial accounting measures it touts to investors. The enterprise software company’s pile of Bitcoin has effectively made its shares a proxy for the digital asset.
Was it a bubble?
Antoni Trenchev,, Nexo co-founder and managing partner, cites Bitcoin’s correlation to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which right now is near the highest in a decade.
“Bitcoin is being battered by a wave of risk-off sentiment. For further cues, keep an eye on traditional markets,” he said. “Fear and unease among investors is palpable.”
Take also the correlation between Bitcoin and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (ticker ARKK), a pandemic poster-child of speculative risk-taking. That correlation stands at around 60 per cent year-to-date, versus about 14 per cent for the price of gold, according to Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, a research firm focused on technical analysis. It’s “reminding us to categorize Bitcoin and altcoins as risk assets rather than safe havens,” she said.
Meanwhile, more than 239,000 traders had their positions closed over the past 24 hours, with liquidations totaling roughly $874 million, according to data from Coinglass, a cryptocurrency futures trading and information platform.