UAE petrol price change for July 2025: Will fuel costs drop?
Falling oil prices and cooling tensions could mean relief for UAE drivers
Dubai: The UAE is set to announce petrol and diesel prices for July 2025 in the coming days. For many residents, these monthly revisions are closely watched, as they help determine fuel budgets and daily spending.
Super 98 petrol: Dh2.58 per litre
Special 95: Dh2.47 per litre
E-Plus: Dh2.39 per litre
Diesel: Dh2.45 per litre (down from Dh2.52 in May)
Since the UAE deregulated fuel prices in 2015, monthly adjustments have followed global oil market trends. With prices for July expected to be announced by June 30, many are now asking: Will fuel prices fall next?
Why are oil prices falling?
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, is trading near $69 a barrel, down over 7% this week. This comes despite a recent conflict between Israel and Iran that initially threatened to disrupt Middle East oil supplies.
Conflict cooling eases supply fears: While the military tensions triggered a short-lived price jump, both sides appear to be stepping back, with the Strait of Hormuz — a key shipping route — remaining open. "The geopolitical risk premium built up since the first Israeli strike on Iran has entirely vanished," said Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM.
Oil surplus fears are back: Analysts now expect a global oil surplus in the second half of 2025. With demand softening and production rising, traders are shifting focus from geopolitics to fundamentals.
OPEC+ may raise output: OPEC+, which includes the UAE and Saudi Arabia, is set to meet on July 6 to discuss increasing production by another 400,000 barrels per day starting August. “As global production rises and demand wanes, we will see prices probing the $60–$65 range,” said Robert Rennie of Westpac.
What does this mean for UAE drivers?
With Brent crude declining and no new disruptions to supply, UAE fuel prices could drop in July, offering some relief to residents after months of high prices.
While local prices also reflect refining and distribution costs, the strong link to global crude trends means falling oil prices may be passed on at the pump.
However, much still depends on OPEC+ decisions and whether the fragile Israel-Iran truce holds.
Bottom line? Lower global oil prices may lead to cheaper fuel in July — unless new disruptions emerge. UAE residents should stay tuned for the official price update later this week.
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