Fitch affirms Abu Dhabi’s AA credit rating with stable outlook

Fitch Ratings , one of the world’s leading international credit rating agencies, has affirmed Abu Dhabi’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'AA' with a Stable Outlook. The agency highlighted the Emirate's strong fiscal metrics and high GDP per capita, noting that Abu Dhabi maintains high net sovereign foreign assets alongside low government debt compared to peer rated sovereigns.

Fitch attributed the Stable Outlook to the resilience of oil export revenues during the US-Iran war, enabling the Emirate to continue strengthening its external and fiscal reserves.

Fitch expects revenue increases from higher oil production to outpace spending growth, projecting a budget surplus of 7.1% of GDP in 2026, inclusive of investment income from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA).

The agency foresees the fiscal surplus widening in 2027—supported by rising hydrocarbon output—before narrowing in 2028 due to lower prices.

 Its baseline assumes Brent crude averages $70 per barrel in 2027 and $60 per barrel in 2028.

Fitch described Abu Dhabi’s sovereign balance sheet as exceptionally strong, estimating net sovereign foreign assets at approximately 300% of GDP by the end of 2025, compared to an average of 45.1% for 'AA'-rated peers.

Fiscal surpluses are expected to be directed toward government-related entities (GREs) executing long-term development projects, as well as boosting domestic bank deposits.

Government debt stood at roughly 19.3% of GDP at end-2025 (versus a 'AA' median of 46.5%). Fitch expects debt levels to remain near these benchmarks, with an increasing focus on local-currency issuances to foster local capital market development.

Fitch also anticipates sustained growth in non-oil economic activity throughout 2026, bolstered by high capital expenditure, countercyclical support measures, and robust consumer spending.

Higher hydrocarbon output is projected to accelerate real GDP growth to 15.1% in 2027, further anchored by GRE-funded infrastructure projects.

Regarding the banking sector, Fitch reaffirmed that Abu Dhabi banks have demonstrated strong resilience amid geopolitical friction, backed by robust financial metrics, including ample liquidity and solid capital buffers.

Fitch Ratings is one of the world’s leading international credit rating agencies, specialising in assessing the financial strength and creditworthiness of governments, sovereign states, banks and corporations.

Fitch is recognised as one of the three major global credit rating agencies, alongside:

When Fitch assigns Abu Dhabi an AA rating with a Stable Outlook, it means the following:

Fitch’s affirmation of Abu Dhabi’s AA rating with a Stable Outlook reflects the emirate’s strong fiscal position, flexible fiscal policies and ability to meet its debt obligations. It underscores the resilience of Abu Dhabi’s economy and the confidence international institutions place in its creditworthiness.