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The escalation of the US-China trade war adds to risks for an already-stumbling global economy, denting expectations of a stronger second half to the year. Should US tariff measures announced this month and the Chinese retaliation stay in place for two years, global GDP could be 0.3% lower by mid-2021, according to Bloomberg Economics’ estimates. In an all-out trade war, global GDP would be lower by 0.6 per cent — close to $600 billion (Dh2.20 trillion) — relative to a no trade war scenario.