The European Union (EU) is going through the worst period since inception in the1950s, when it appeared as the nucleus for what came to be known as the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC).

Many member countries are trying to pull out of the union because of the growing nationalist sentiment and the emergence of populist parties. The EU entity is now in jeopardy.

After the UK had made up its mind to withdraw from the EU, chances of others following in those footsteps is no longer a distant possibility. In France, such ideas of the extreme right are growing in popularity, in calling for duplicating Britain’s experiment.

This means either disbanding the EU or downsizing it, and thus shrinking its influence in international relations and with economic and political repercussions that would not only affect the withdrawing countries but the EU and the global economy as a whole.

Attention is being turned on France, the second largest economy within Eurozone after Germany, where Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s far-right Front National party, is achieving noticeable success even though it is not definite that she is going to win the election.

Le Pen said in case she won, she will withdraw from the single currency euro and hold a referendum to vote for France’s continued membership in the EU. This referendum, if it takes place, would decide not only the fate of France but also the EU.

This battle being waged by Le Pen and her party is quite similar to that one waged by Stalingrad during World War II, which decided the result of the war and began the Nazi retreat back to the Reichstag.

Yet, a “Frexit” will not be like Brexit as the UK was not a member of the Eurozone and not involved in the Schengen system. Hence, Frexit, if made possible, would result in complicated financial and cash implications, far outreaching the economic consequences that resulted from the Brexit.

It will also result in the collapse of the euro to below $1, reflecting negatively on European economies, especially those in trouble such as Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal and creating social shocks besides the economic and financial ones.

As the euro represents one of the most important instruments of cash reserves for most of the world besides the dollar, sterling and yen, euro’s deterioration will affect these countries and the global economy as well as the energy and financial markets which have only recently recovered.

On the moral side, the collapse of the EU will reflect negatively on other economic unions, which look at the EU as an example. Indeed, such groupings have already been affected by the new US administration and its pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal as well as Trump’s threats to withdraw from the NAFTA agreement, which also includes Canada and Mexico.

But the question arises as how countries would deal with the possibility of such developments taking place in global relations? This is an important question that needs an answer. On the one hand, agreements signed by the EU with others covering economic, financial and trade aspects will be impacted.

EU assistance-dependent countries will be affected as well. Germany, for instance, cannot afford to carry the burden of costs, not to mention the fate that could be in store for Greece and other Eastern European countries, which will suffer a lot, especially economically.

We hope that such events will not happen and that France will overcome the right’s challenge and remain in the EU ... for the sake of Europe’s — and global — stability

Everything will become clear in less than two months and unpredicted events can happen despite the dim prospects of Le Pen winning, at least according to opinion polls. However, with Trump election’s in mind, everything is possible, especially in France where polls are quite tight between the nominees.

Dr Mohammad Al Asoomi is a UAE economic expert and specialist in economic and social development in the UAE and the GCC countries.