London: The yen and Europe’s major currencies were steady against the dollar on Monday and well off last week’s lows after investors used Friday’s robust but lower-than-forecast US jobs report to rebase after three weeks of gains.
The euro was holding most of Friday’s gains at $1.3423 in morning trade in Europe, although London-based dealers and analysts said it was unlikely to take back much ground ahead of the European Central Bank’s August policy statement on Thursday.
“Thursday’s ECB meeting is likely to accentuate the euro’s weakness, in our view,” analysts from Barclays said in a note.
“ECB President Mario Draghi is likely to reaffirm the central bank’s commitment to using extraordinary policy measures to ease monetary conditions, including the prospect of ABS purchases, and address very low euro area inflation.” US nonfarm payrolls handed the dollar its biggest one-day fall in nearly a month on Friday, even if they did not do much to temper expectations for the start of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate-tightening cycle.
The US currency enjoyed its best month in July since January of last year, feeding expectations it may finally be ready to rally for the longer-term even if there seems to be little fuel for another surge this week.
The Fed is thought to be heading steadily toward a first rise in rates next year, while the European Central Bank may have to battle falling prices with further monetary easing.
Overall euro zone inflation in July was just 0.4 per cent.
“The dollar has gained a lot in the last few weeks so we were probably due a positioning-led correction,” said Geoffrey Yu, a strategist at Swiss bank UBS in London.
“The inflation report last week did not help the euro but we don’t see any downside catalysts for it (from the ECB) this week. The main interest is whether the dollar can continue this rally.”
The dollar index was last at 81.365, having retreated from a 10-1/2 month peak of 81.573. It had fallen 0.2 per cent on Friday, a modest decline by any measure but still the biggest one-day fall in over three weeks.
The pound blipped higher on the back of an upbeat construction survey but was back under pressure by midday in London. After a 15 per cent gain against the dollar in the year to July, analysts at major banks are divided on whether two weeks of falls represent a short-term correction for the pound or the end of the rally.
Analysts at JP Morgan recommended backing the euro and the dollar against the pound in a weekly note, pointing to an economy that was reaching the top of the cycle.
Against the yen, the greenback recoiled to 102.62, having stretched to a near four-month high of 103.15.
Koji Fukaya, president at FPG Securities in Tokyo, said dollar/yen popping above the 103 yen threshold several times last week spelled a departure from the past six months, when the pair was stuck in a narrow band around 102.
“There is also a trend change in dollar/yen implied volatility,” he said. “Vols have been dropping since the start of the year, but the downtrend was broken in July and one-year implied vols briefly rose above 8 per cent last week. This could help initiate moves in the cash market.” One-year dollar/yen implied volatility, or the expected price swing, fell to a seven-year low of 6.90 per cent in mid-July but rose above 8 per cent on Friday, highlighting expectations of a new trading range in coming weeks.
The Aussie dollar also popped back above 93 US cents , from two-month lows of $0.9275. After limited reaction to slightly stronger-than-expected Australian retail sales figures, Aussie bulls will be looking to a Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate meeting on Tuesday.
