Gold’s Santa Rally is recurring year-end gift for chart watchers

London: Whether they’ve been naughty or nice, gold investors can usually count on a year-end Santa rally.

In nine of the past 10 years, bullion prices advanced from Dec. 23 to Jan. 3, with gains averaging 2.9 per cent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Even in 2013 and 2014, when gold was capping two of its worst years in more than a decade, the value of the precious metal increased during those holiday weeks. Traders like Brad Yates at Elemetal Capital LLC attribute the gains partly to the tendency of consumers in China — the world’s top buyer — to stock up before the Lunar New Year holiday.

“The global dynamic has been one of metal flowing from West to East, so it’s not a surprise to see prices rising as trade winds down in New York and London while desks remain active in Asia,” Yates, Elemetal’s head of trading in Dallas, said by telephone on Monday. “This could be a pretty good Christmas present to someone’s profit and loss statement.”

Demand for gold has remained strong in Asia even as it declined elsewhere. While holdings in global exchange-traded funds backed by the metal touched a six-year low on Dec. 17, and prices are headed for a third straight average annual decline, mainland China saw a 7.8 per cent increase in purchases in the first nine months of the year, according to the China Gold Association.

In India, the world’s No. 2 buyer, demand is showing signs of rebounding from a period of high taxes on foreign supplies. Imports of gold in November were more than double the amount in October. Purchases in India usually peak in the last three months of the year, with gifting during festivals like Diwali, and culminates with the start of the wedding season in November.

Already Underway

This year’s Santa Rally may already have started. Gold for immediate delivery, which touched a five-year low of $1,046.44 an ounce on Dec. 3, has advanced 2.3 per cent since then and is up 0.5 per cent this month at $1,070.50 on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg generic pricing.

“Coming out of a slow, post-Diwali period, we’re moving into a stronger restocking period ahead of Chinese New Year,” Suki Cooper, a precious metals analyst at Standard Chartered Plc, said by phone from New York on Dec. 11. “This seems like it could be part of that seasonal shift.”

The year-end gains aren’t unique to gold. Equity markets have their own history of Santa rallies. The Bloomberg World Mining Index is up 5.1 per cent this week and the Bloomberg World Oil & Gas Index has gained 4 per cent. But so far this month, almost every broad equity measure is down. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.8 per cent in December, and the MSCI World Index, a measure of global shares, slid 1.4 per cent.

Gold Outperforming

Gold has had more Santa rallies than other major markets. The S&P 500 advanced in six of the past 10 years. Over that same period, bullion advanced more often from Dec. 23-Jan. 3 than 10- year treasuries, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index and the Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Lunar New Year, which this year falls on Feb. 8, is considered auspicious for gold buying in China, with demand for the metal usually peaking in the first quarter, according to data from the World Gold Council. Last year, consumers purchased 316.3 metric tons of metal from January to March, council figures show.

“The Far East tends to be net-buyers, and they are the most active during this period,” James Steel, the chief commodities analyst at HSBC Securities (USA) Inc., said by phone on Dec. 11. “If they are more influential, then prices will naturally tend to rise.”