London: The impact of the global economic slowdown on the UAE tourism sector appears to be minimal, according to latest estimates by global tourism bodies.
According to the latest report by the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), the contribution of travel and tourism to the UAE's GDP is expected to stabilise at 20.2 per cent, or Dh178.7 billion in 2009.
The contribution of the sector to employment is expected to be around 584,000 jobs in 2009, which is 15.7 per cent of total employment, or 1 in every 6.4 jobs in the country. The travel and tourism economy is expected to decline 0.8 per cent in 2009. However, it is expected to witness 2.8 per cent growth on an average over the coming ten years.
The travel, tourism and hotel industries are better off working together, tourism industry officials say.
"I do not think anyone should sit and relax. Destinations should work together hand-in-hand to bring in tourists," Terry Fisher, CEO of Gold Medal Travel Group told Gulf News.
"Now global destinations are competing against each other. Dubai is competing against major destinations such as Las Vegas.
"However, we find Las Vegas [a] cheaper destination than Dubai as its hotel industry has lowered rates to allow better and more attractive prices for British tourists. Dubai's tour operators and hoteliers should do the same."
Gold Medal handles 650,000 tourists out of the UK every year. It sends more than 60 per cent to the UAE, mostly Dubai.
Travel analysts feel Dubai was becoming too expensive as a destination.
Echoing Fisher's views, Gassan Aridi, CEO of Alpha Tours, told Gulf News, "We need to adjust rates to the ground realities. The travel and tourism industry should come together to offer better price for inbound tourists."
Export earnings from international visitors and tourism goods are expected to generate 15.6 per cent of total exports, or Dh134.1 billion in 2009, growing (in nominal terms) to Dh260.9 billion (14.5 per cent of total) in 2019.
The UAE travel and tourism economy is ranked No 21 in absolute size worldwide; 30 in terms of relative contribution to national economies; and 151 in long-term (10-year) growth among 181 countries, according to WTTC estimates.
According to the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO), the Middle East's tourism sector is expected to decline eight per cent. Although still well down on the growth levels of previous years, the sector witnessed a return to positive growth between June and September this year.
Bottoming out
The decline in international tourism may have started to bottom out, according to the latest edition of the UNWTO's World Tourism Barometer. Worldwide, international tourist arrivals declined by seven per cent between January and August 2009, but the rate of decline has eased in the past few months.
These results, as well as the most recent economic data, confirm UNWTO's initial forecast of a five per cent decline in international tourist arrivals for the full year in 2009. For 2010, UNWTO expects a moderate growth.
The softening in the rate of decline seen in the last months is expected to continue during the remainder of the year. As this is in line with the UNWTO's initial projection, for the full year, the forecast for the decline in international tourist arrivals is maintained at between six per cent and four per cent.
Given the high level of correlation between arrivals' and receipts' growth, for the whole of 2009, receipts are expected to slip by six to eight per cent, UNWTO said in its report last week.
However, the WTTC thinks that, after four years of growth averaging at 3.6 per cent, the travel and tourism economy GDP growth slowed to one per cent in 2008, its weakest performance since the recessionary period.
Two difficult years are now in prospect, with the sector's GDP contribution likely to contract by 3.3 per cent in 2009 and to expand by only 0.3 per cent in 2010. But, looking beyond the current crisis, the sector is expected to resume its leading role in global growth.
