Melbourne: Any speculation the 12 members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries may rein in oil production underestimates Iran’s determination to go it alone.

Oil in London surged about 8 per cent Monday after Opec said in its monthly magazine that it’s ready to talk to other producers to achieve “fair and reasonable prices”. It’s a willingness with a oft-repeated caveat: Opec won’t reduce output to prop up crude unless the burden is shared with non-member nations.

Even if other producers agree to do their part, getting the Opec members to adhere to a coordinated response will be a problem, especially with Iran seeking to boost output and regain market share as it emerges from the grip of sanctions, according to analysts at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. and Fat Prophets. While smaller producers agitate for an emergency meeting to address the price drop before their next scheduled summit in December, the group continues to pump above its 30 million barrel a day quota, fuelling the oversupply that has driven oil lower.

“How does Opec react to Iran?” David Lennox at Fat Prophets in Sydney said by phone. “Time and time again, Opec say one thing and then they do another. The market has to see the action. Words are not enough.”

Any move to scale back Opec production, and Iran’s ambitions, would require support from Saudi Arabia, the group’s biggest member. The world’s largest exporter led the decision last year to sustain output as prices tumbled, speculating that higher-cost producers would be forced out of the market.

“We currently expect no significant change in Saudi oil supply policy in the wake of the renewed pressure on prices,” analysts at Standard Chartered Plc said in a report last week.

Pushing Ahead

Iran is pushing ahead with its goal to increase market share, with the nation pumping 2.9 million barrels a day in August, the fastest rate in three years, according to a Bloomberg survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. That helped boost Opec production to 32.3 million barrels a day, the fifteenth straight month the group has pumped above its 30 million a day quota, the data show.

Opec “has stressed on numerous occasions, it stands ready to talk to all other producers,” the organisation said in its magazine published Monday on its website. The group “will protect its own interests,” it added.

Opec is far from united. Algeria’s Energy Minister Salah Khebri last month suggested an emergency meeting, an idea that drew supportive comments from Libya and Venezuela. Saudi Arabia gave no public response, while Iraq has said its production increases was important to meet the needs of its growing population.

“There would have to be pressure from other Opec members to throttle back Iran’s goal,” Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group in Sydney, said by phone. “I don’t think this signals any shift in strategy, but highlights the ongoing pressure on the group that these lower prices have brought.”