LONDON: It may not be cafe au lait, but traders are likely to need plenty of coffee to sustain them through the first round of the French election.

Ten thousand miles away in Melbourne, IG Ltd’s trading crew are due at their desks before dawn on Monday to deal with any fallout, while back in Europe, Societe Generale AG will be staffed overnight, according to a person familiar with their plans who asked not to be named because they aren’t authorised to speak publicly.

Staff at HSBC Holdings Plc will work extended hours, a spokeswoman said, Tradition is asking more voice brokers to come in on Sunday, while London-based Caxton FX Ltd is providing its night owls with pizzas. Other analysts and investors will be nervously watching from home, ready to dash to the office should French voters spring a surprise.

With the first predictions from France due at 8pm. Sunday in Paris, currency markets — which open one hour later — will give traders an early chance to react. At IG in Australia a “fully-manned” team will be on deck as the results roll in, according to Chris Weston, the firm’s chief market strategist.

“Political events have a significant ability to alter volatility, more than any other event,” he said.

A spokeswoman for SocGen confirmed that they will hold conference calls for clients on Sunday night but declined to comment further on the bank’s plans.

Shifts in opinion polls have bolstered the focus on Sunday’s first round, which decides which of the top candidates progress to the run-off vote. The campaign has turned into a four-way race, with anti-euro candidate Marine Le Pen and independent Emmanuel Macron running just ahead of Republican Francois Fillon and the Communist-backed Jean-Luc Melenchon.

While polls show that either Macron or Fillon — considered the more market-friendly candidates — would be favoured against the less-centrist opponents in a run-off, it’s the outside prospect of a Le Pen-Melenchon one-two that will keep traders sweating on Sunday. That’s reflected in the options market, which reflects the first round of French elections as posing the greater risk.

Déjà Vu

The playbook of late nights and early starts is a familiar one for traders after 2016’s Brexit vote, the US election and Italy’s constitutional referendum in December. As with the French election, those shocks, and the subsequently raucous reaction in markets, took place initially during Asian trading hours — when liquidity tends to be lower — making currencies more prone to sudden moves. The FX market open on Monday is an especially vulnerable time, with traders in Europe and the US still on their weekends.

Twice-Bitten Traders Take No Chances With French Election Risk

Traders spoken to in Asia, who didn’t want to be identified as they’re not authorised to speak to media, said they’ll be at their desks from about 3am. Singapore time. There will be little leeway to add to risk profiles, according to one, with staff told to just clear existing positions rather than initiate anything new, and to be mindful of the potential for widening spreads.

Don’t Let the French Election Ruin Your Weekend: Macro View

IG’s Weston’s predicts a Le Pen-Melenchon run-off could push the euro below parity with the dollar, a 7.7 per cent drop from current levels, and akin to the 10 per cent drop in the pound seen after the Brexit vote. While those memories are unnerving traders, some are also concerned about a repeat for more practical reasons.

“I’ll be following the action at home until the result is clear,” said Gordon Shannon, a money manager at Twentyfour Asset Management LLP in London, who bought euro-dollar put options on Thursday to hedge against a non-market friendly outcome. “Hopefully it won’t be another Uber 5x surge charge at 4am like Brexit as everyone rushes in to deal with the fallout.”