Platinum moved higher during the past week after finally breaking resistance at 1700 USD/oz. It reached a 16-month high at 1744 before traders, already holding a record net-long position decided to book some profit after seeing platinum climb by 11.5 per cent this year and become the top performing commodity.
According to Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy, Saxo Bank, “The most recent leg higher was triggered by increased concerns that supplies from South Africa, the world’s largest producer, may fall back due to mine closures and labour disputes. During this rally platinum has regained its premium over gold for the first time since March 2012. The current premium of three percent compares with five-year average of 15 per cent.”
The biggest near-term threat to platinum’s continued move higher is the speculative community itself which have accumulated a record net-long position both through futures and exchange traded products, said Hansen. “The question therefore remains how much further this rally will go before the urge to take some profit exceeds the hopes for additional gains.”
What to do?
“In the short term I would be looking for an additional pull-back considering the strong rally we have seen lately,” said Hansen. “Instead of selling platinum outright I would consider buying gold against it thereby reducing the volatility but at the same time look for the premium to move closer to zero. In the medium term the investment story for platinum is one of support as supply worries will continued to play its part while demand from the auto industry, especially in the Far East remains robust.”