Beijing:

Rising home sales and prices are cheered in the US as keys to an economic recovery. But in China, the prospect of a housing surge is fraying the nerves of policymakers.

Alarmed by ballooning values — and the growing frustration of average citizens fearful of never owning a home — China’s central government in 2010 introduced curbs to cool the nation’s overheated real estate market. It worked.

Tighter credit, a crackdown on speculators and limits on purchases of second homes slowed price rises and stopped some developments cold. But those moves also put the brakes on China’s hard-charging economy, which, like the US, relies heavily on construction and real estate activity.

China said its third-quarter GDP growth had slowed to 7.4 per cent from a year earlier, the slowest pace in three and-a-half years. China’s leaders now face some tough choices. Do they rev up the housing market to create jobs and boost economic growth, even if it means fuelling class tensions and a potentially dangerous real estate bubble?

“A lot of things like steel-making, coal and construction equipment have taken a huge hit from the falloff in real estate and would presumably be boosted by a recovery,” said Patrick Chovanec, an economist at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “The only reason they’re not boosting real estate is that the alternative is actually worse.”

Real estate agent Wang Yu longs for the return of the go-go years. She works at a luxury housing development on the outskirts of Chengdu, a booming metropolis of 14 million people in southwestern China.

Modelled after a European village, the project, known as Salzberg, boasts faux Tuscan villas and cobblestone streets named for composers such as Strauss and Schubert. On a recent weekday, the sales office was empty.

Wang said demand dried up when the government made it tougher for buyers to qualify for mortgages. Nearly a quarter of the development’s 145 homes remained unsold, she said, including the most expensive property, a 3,800-square-foot unit priced at $800,000.

“A few years ago, people would get loans,” Wang said.

He Kunwei, a senior broker at 21st Century real estate in Chengdu, said he too is struggling; his sales numbers are down more than half since last year. Despite the government’s efforts, housing remains expensive and out of reach for the vast majority of Chinese; the average annual salary in Beijing, the highest in the country, was $8,900 last year.

Meanwhile, the average price of a typical 100-square-metre home in nine coveted Chinese cities was slightly more than $192,000 in June, the latest figures available from SouFun, China’s largest real estate website. That’s about 33 per cent higher than it was three years ago.

Prime property in the capital can cost well into the millions of dollars.

It remains to be seen whether China’s new leaders will change course on real estate. Among their considerations: Local officials throughout China are desperate to revive the market because their budgets rely heavily on land sales to generate revenue.

So far, Beijing has given no indication it will soften its stance. Although China is vulnerable to a larger global slowdown, its economy is in better shape than it was after the 2008 financial crisis.

Back then, millions of migrant labourers were out of work. China’s real estate boom has also generated resentment among many average Chinese. Luxury apartments are viewed by some as the spoils of the privileged -- and the corrupt.

China is now aiming to build tens of millions of apartments aimed at low-income residents. “They learned their lessons from 2010, when they ended up with a very dangerous situation with public anger,” said Rosealea Yao, an analyst for GaveKal Dragonomics, a Beijing research firm.

“The government’s credibility was damaged then. This time around they will not let it happen again, even after the leadership transition.”

— The Los Angeles Times