It seems that behind the bloody events in Ukraine there are a lot of issues of strategic and economic importance to rival international powers in there.
Ukraine is historically the twin of Russia since the Tsarist era and the state of “Kievan Rus” in the Middle Ages, during which Russia and Ukraine were one country, and both later formed the most important foundations of the Soviet Union. More important is that the Soviet Union’s major industries, such as aircraft industry, were concentrated in Ukraine.
Despite the abundance of natural and agricultural resources, Ukraine’s main problem lies in its poor energy resources, and hence it depends heavily on its neighbor Russia, whether during the era of the Soviet Union or at the present time.
This blocked Western attempts, represented in the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) in separating the twins over the past 20 years. However, several developments in energy technology made it possible for Ukraine to manage without Russian energy supplies through the shale oil and gas production, as preliminary estimates indicate the abundance of shale gas and oil in the Ukrainian territories.
The EU and the US are intending to invest billions of dollars to develop oil and gas deposits in Ukraine, which may become an exporter, apart from being self-sufficient.
This may affect Russian gas supplies to Europe. Russia supplies Europe with approximately 30 per cent of its gas needs through Ukraine.
In addition to these economic issues, undoubtedly, there are strategic, security and political aspects, represented in the presence of the Russian fleet in the self-autonomous republic of Crimea, which may separate from Ukraine in case the conflict will continue.
This is with knowledge that the West is trying to reduce Russia’s influence on former Soviet republics that enjoy strong relations with Russia due to their interrelated economic interests. The same scenario happened with Georgia five years ago, and is currently happening with Ukraine.
The problem of the EU is that it wants to reduce its dependence on Russian energy supplies and at the same time does not want to develop shale oil and gas production on its territories, because of environmental damage caused by production processes. The environmental protection organizations are strongly resisting attempts by some EU countries to develop shale gas and oil production.
This approach has prompted French President Francois Hollande to rule out shale gas exploration under his administration.
Since Western countries are challenged by environmental protection agencies the possible alternative is to develop shale oil and gas output in Eastern European countries, particularly in Ukraine, and help it in its endeavour to join the EU.
The Eastern European countries are in need for energy sources along with their needs for additional income to finance development projects, which are currently on foreign countries, with Ukraine’s foreign debts alone amounting to $ 140 billion.
So, the EU, with US support, can catch many birds with one stone. By doing so, the EU will meet part of its energy needs from non-Russian sources, thus reducing Moscow’s pressure on its member states.
Secondly, this will also help them in their attempts to separate Ukraine from Russia and make it closer to the EU, and accept it later as a member of the union. Third, the EU will avoid environmental damage that would result from shale oil and gas production in their territories.
In return, Russia seeks to maintain the status quo. This is simply because Ukraine is Russia’s strategic and security depth, and the continuous dependence of Western countries on Russian gas supplies is a great pressure and helps Moscow reap more gains.
It is believed that at the time when Washington steps up criticism of Russia on many international issues, the EU usually plays the role of appeasement to avoid the anger of the Russian Czar who owns many cards to play and apply more pressure.
So, what is happening in Ukraine has nothing to do with defending democracy in Ukraine, where there is a democratically elected president in transparent elections, which were supervised by the EU , in addition to the availability of other freedoms in Ukraine.
In fact, the Ukrainian scene reflects conflict of economic interests and an attempt to control the promised energy resources, the exploration and extraction of which would lead to strategic, political and security consequences.
Dr Mohammad Al Asoomi is a UAE economic expert and specialist in economic and social development in the UAE and the GCC countries.
