The balance of power is changing at a speed much faster than many expected, and one that does not give anyone a chance to catch their breath and take stock. Some of the most powerful nations and influential blocs are simultaneously trying to keep up with the changes and prioritise their interests accordingly. Thus, sudden — and dramatic changes — in global relationships are happening overnight.

Highly volatile oil prices are not the only factor that affects these relations. However, they are a fundamental component within a set of power equation changes that also include energy policies. Hence, oil will continue to remain a key catalyst in the global energy markets.

The conflict over oil will reshape the map of balance of power and alliances. The West has been strategically associated with Middle East oil but are now slowly moving away from this inflamed region, especially after they succeeded in finding alternatives such as shale oil in the US, renewable energy sources, and gas in Russia and Azerbaijan.

Therefore, the Middle Eastern oil and gas producing countries must seek to change the rules of the game in the region in view of such rapid changes, and shift the centre of gravity from the West to the flourishing and fast growing East.

This shift is supported by data that indicates a radical change in economic and trade relations, with the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) pointing out that 68 per cent of Saudi oil exports go to Asia.

In terms of the sales of Saudi Arabia’s Aramco, the largest oil company in the world, Asian markets account for 54 per cent of its sales compared to only 17 per cent sales to the US. This percentage does not differ from the sales mix of the rest of oil companies, which too have become more dependent on Asian markets.

This change requires finding a new strategy in keeping up with the rapidly changing relationships in the global energy market in particular, and in global ties in general.

This has prompted Aramco to establish a subsidiary company called “Aramco Asia” based in Beijing, where it will oversee the company’s sales and related activities in the entire continent.

The new approach reflects the shift in interests in view of the rapid changes that will inevitably lead to political and strategic relations to be reset. The new regime will not only reflect the emerging economic interests of the various parties, but also give a picture of what these relations will be in coming years — complex and serious.

On the one hand, the US and the West in general have become less overtly interested in the Middle East’s stability, because it is no longer seen as the sole source of its energy needs. But they can try and control the supplies to Asian economies, who are strong competitors to the economies of the US and the West.

On the other hand, Asian countries are showing a growing interest in the region’s security and stability, which constitutes a guarantee for their oil and gas supplies. The current situation is similar to Europe’s after the Second World War, when it was unable to rebuild its economy without the region’s cheap oil that was available in abundance at the time.

Thus, for the major economies in the West and East, the Middle East can still have a balancing role due to their rich sources of energy.

Hence, countries in the region must develop their own strategy that reflects their own interests because the power equations today are not like what they were during the period after the Second World War.

For example, China and India have become powerful economies with major military capabilities. Therefore, they will not give up their interests and alliances; but will seek to strengthen their ties with the Middle East due to their common strategic interests, which in turn requires the creation of a strong foundation for newly minted relations and shared interests.

Dr Mohammad Al Asoomi is a UAE economic expert and specialist in economic and social development in the UAE and the GCC countries.