A successful 2020 Expo would be the best thing that can happen to Dubai. And by all indications so far, it is a foregone conclusion.

The next best thing for Dubai would be the re-establishment of fully-fledged trade between Dubai and Iran, always a prime driver of Dubai’s trading hub status. Going by the thaw in Iran’s relations with the western world in the wake of President Rouhani’s and President Obama’s outreach towards each other, even this has become a clear possibility.

Both scenarios are a tantalising prospect for Dubai’s businessmen and the country’s economy as a whole. Trade with Iran has been a major plank of Dubai’s success as a trading hub.

Much of this trade has been in the form of re-export of goods imported into Dubai’s free zones from other destinations, ranging from daily foodstuffs to large industrial machinery and equipment. So much so, Iran is the UAE’s second-largest re-export market, accounting for about 17 per cent of total re-export volumes. In fact, the UAE, to be more specific Dubai, is one of Iran’s top sources of imports, accounting for more than 15 per cent.

As far as Dubai is concerned, it is a win-win situation as what is shipped from this side of the Gulf is almost 10 times in value compared to what is received from the other side.

But since 2011, with Iran having been virtually strangulated by sanctions over its nuclear programme, trade between two sides began to shrink, much to the discomfort of both. Dubai’s businessmen are known for their ingenuity in carrying on their trade, but the strict anti-money laundering enforcements that kept Iran out of the global banking system gave them only limited options, which were too inadequate to sustain the huge turnovers that characterised trade between the two sides.

Dubai’s emergence as a regional business and trading hub itself owes a lot to Iran. In a farsighted move to benefit from the trading skills of traditionally astute Iranian businessmen, the Dubai rulers invited them to their shores and gave them land and other grants to set up businesses here.

These merchants quickly assimilated and organised themselves to serve as the backbone of Dubai’s merchant and professional class. In fact, the prominence gained by some of the most influential local business families is a testimony to the clout of the Iranian traders brought over to this side of the shore.

In later periods, this role was largely taken over by Indian businessmen, who used their presence in Dubai to channelise trade between two major markets: India and Iran. Both countries had a huge requirement of each other’s goods and merchandise and the Dubai traders only had to connect the two sides.

Dubai’s role as a trading hub was greatly enhanced by this two-way trade, which also saw the explosive growth of a consumer market in Iran, held in check by the revolution and its aftermath. That created a new dynamic in the re-export of goods from Dubai.

Trouble in Iran had always meant opportunity for Dubai, except in the recent sanctions regime, where a back-breaking banking ex-communication frustrated all possibilities of gainfully engaging in business. At all other times, the discontent in Iran had played out to the advantage of Dubai. In this respect, the role played by Iranian money in building up momentum for Dubai’s first freehold property boom cannot be underplayed. Dubai’s security and stability became a major incentive for Iranians working in US and Europe to invest in a home in Dubai either for themselves or their close relatives, just as it worked with the Indian Diaspora.

If Iran’s relations with the rest of the world improve on expected lines, the Dubai property sector will be another major beneficiary as the market seeks to consolidate the momentum created by a new wave of investor confidence and buying interest, triggered by a series of new development initiatives.