In Theory: US no longer calling the shots

The US arguably became the world's sole superpower after the collapse of the Berlin Wall two decades ago. But it has been a tumultuous reign.

During these 20 years, Washington has played the role of world economic leader and political driver of United Nations organisations. It has also played the role of ‘gendarme' in global military and security relations.

This agitated both the US's traditional enemies and allies alike, especially in Europe where many new world systems were formulated. On the other hand, the US economy was burdened beyond its capacity because administrating world affairs and guarding them unilaterally is not easy.

As it seems, everyone is in agreement about ending the US's sole control over the world order. Being the sole superpower today has drained its economy, especially after former US president George W. Bush pushed the country into wars that cost the US economy a trillion dollars in the last nine years alone.

As the US seems to be losing its hold on world affairs, mutiny has started on all levels.

Western Europe, Washington's historical ally, was greatly harmed by the subprime crisis in the US and is seeking to regain its role of supervising any legislation that affects the world economy.

Europe has also announced on several occasions that US President Barack Obama's policies are not Europe's concern.

China, on the other hand, has refused Washington's proposal to amend its currency exchange rates several times. This is despite US threats to shrink the trade exchange between the two countries and apply additional duties on China's exports to the US.

Russia has also regained some of its lost influence, placing itself once again as a strong competitor opposite the US military power and forcing Washington to cancel its plans to set up rocket shield bases' in Poland and the Czech Republic.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) is also determined to keep oil prices on the higher side in keeping with its interests. The fact that the US imports around 15 million barrels daily — almost half of Opec's oil production — makes no difference to the group.

The US has not fallen yet, but it is suffering a dangerous depletion of its wealth and status. Venezuela and other Latin American countries have formed a strong bloc against US interests in the region.

Should we apply Ibn Khaldoun's theory of the rise and fall of nations, we will find that the international orientation mentioned above points clearly to a feeble phase prevailing in the US.

On the threshold

The fact is that the world is standing on the threshold of a new multi-polar phase, thus overcoming the bipolar phase of two super powers controlling the globe. A situation which prevailed in the post Second World War era and the mono-polar era which ensued after the fall of the Berlin Wall.

The features of this era has started to emerge with the inability of the US to solve the international economic crisis without cooperating with Europe, China and the Opec countries. It cannot find a solution to the Iranian nuclear programme issue without coordinating with Russia, China and EU countries. The time when the US imposed its agenda during its administration of international organisations, including the International Monetary Fund and waging a war against Iraq, is over.

Washington must not be upset with such a transformation in international relations as both Britain and France lost their economic dominance in the post-war era. It saw the US dollar dethroning the Sterling pound.

The US has now reached a stage where it is stumbling under the weight of its budget deficit inflated by military expenses.

Frankly, the US is going to benefit greatly from this transformation, as it will direct its resources towards development and will divide the expenses of ensuring world stability with other powers.

But there is a price to be paid. The US will have to give up its sole dominance of world relations and work on ensuring just and equal international relations.

This includes solving the Palestinian conflict and putting an end to the Israel's arrogance, which is what European countries, Russia and China are trying to achieve.

This group has already started taking the initiative to solve economic and political problems inherited decades ago.

Dr. Mohammad Al Asoomi is a UAE economic expert.