Since the discovery of oil, data related to the size of its production and newly discovered oil reserves has flowed in year after year, reaching its peak at the beginning of this century. This is a natural result of discovering new oil fields on the one hand and major developments in oil exploration technology, on the other.

During the last few years, two developments important to the economies of oil-exporting countries in particular, and the world economy in general, took place.

The first was the use of high-tech satellites to discover oil and gas. This means that countries that have the capability to make these satellites also possess important information about these reserves.

The other development is related to the regularly leaked but often contradictory information about the world's oil reserves. The latest US government report was about the Orinoco Belt oil reserve, a territory that occupies the southern strip of the eastern Orinoco River Basin in Venezuela, boosting Venezuelan oil reserves to 500 billion barrels — twice Saudi Arabia's reserves.

Venezuela's registered oil reserves are now around 50 billion barrels.

Similar data was also published about the oil reserves in Bahrain, Iraq and Kuwait. The Bahrain and Iraq reserves were estimated to be double the previously discovered quantities. The estimations also found the Bahraini per capita reserves will be the highest in the world.

All these assessments were made at a time when both Bahrain and Iraq decided to triple their oil production. Kuwait's oil reserves, however, declined by almost 50 per cent — from 97 billion barrels to 50 billion barrels. This led Kuwait's Parliament members to demand the truth behind the matter.

The truth is often hidden by these satellite owners. These satellites include high-tech sensors, and the information received through these satellites is usually kept in national security ‘classified' files.

Obscured truth

Thus, some actions and struggles in many areas of conflict, such as the Arab Gulf, Iraq, Africa, Asia and South America, stand as evidence of the hidden truth that has caused turmoil in these countries. The most important oil reserves in the world lie in these countries.

Our concern here is the future of development in our region which basically depends on oil. We do not want to wake up one morning to be told that our oil has seeped underground to other areas in the world! We also do not want to be told that oil companies exaggerated when estimating the oil reserves in the Gulf region, especially as we are still in the most important preparatory phase for the post-oil era, where our countries are seeking ways to find substitute income sources and alternate energy resources for the drying up oil wealth.

Most likely there are exaggerations, and probably there is a re-distribution process of world oil reserves which is taking place through new oil discoveries.

Oil wells in the US, North Sea, Africa, Asia are drying up; hence re-calculations will be made about the world's oil wealth.

Boosting production

The other part of the picture is related to the international need to boost oil production in major oil-producing countries. This is especially true in the Arab Gulf region, where this may encourage the increase in production rates, as reports indicate that existing reserves are in abundance and cover the world's needs for long years to come, hence instead of restricting oil production, the oil production faucets must be turned on to increase revenues and meet the increasing international needs for oil.

The truth remains ambiguous to one party and crystal clear to another, however, the picture will remain hazy for a limited time, because power struggles will expose facts that will speed up drawing the actual map of the world's oil reserves.

 

Dr Mohammad Al Asoomi is a UAE economic expert.