It is just over one year since the catastrophic earthquake and tsunami that hit the western shores of Japan on March 11, 2011 and the devastation it caused to four of the six reactors of the Fukushima nuclear power plant.
That incident may not be much in the news now, but its aftermath is still playing its course and its impact on the nuclear industry is progressing.
In its wake, Japan decided to stop the remainder of its 54 reactors for stress tests to see if they can stand a similar incident to what happened in Fukushima. A few days ago, Japan shut down its last reactor. Therefore, no nuclear electricity at all is now feeding its grid because the government was not able to start any reactor after finishing the tests due to public opposition.
If the government failed to approve the restart of two reactors, it is feared that Japan may face power shortages during the long humid summer and shortages may force industrial companies to reduce production.
To cover the shortfall, Japan increased imports of oil and natural gas and supporters of the nuclear industry fear that if the summer passes without major shortages, this will strengthen the opposition to the restarting of nuclear reactors.
Plans in limbo
Before the Fukushima disaster, Japan relied on nuclear power for about 30 per cent of its electricity needs, and there were plans to increase its share to more than 50 per cent by 2030 with the construction of new reactors.
All this now is in limbo and it does not appear possible to scare people into nuclear power by drumming the risk of rising carbon emissions and global warming, especially that opponents are supported by a recent environment ministry report that Japan can still reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 25 per cent by 2030 from 1990 levels without nuclear through energy saving and the quicker adoption of renewables.
But there is another important angle to what is happening in Japan. The emergency at Fukushima is not over because the risks of radiation are not neutralised. It is said that "three melted cores still smoulder and a report from US Senator Ron Wyden confirms that at least one spent fuel pool suspended 30 metres in the air, bearing tons of hugely toxic rods, could crash to the ground with another strong earthquake — a virtual certainty by most calculations."
Japanese ambassador Murata even wrote to UN secretary-general saying: "It is no exaggeration to say that the fate of Japan and the whole world depends on No 4 reactor".
Asking the UN to intervene is unheard of in a country like Japan. The owners of the reactor, Tokyo Electricity and Power Company, are trying to reduce the fear but they are reported to be short of money to expedite a solution.
In such an accident, the uncovered fuel rods contain radioactive cesium and other isotopes far beyond what was released at Chernobyl and such radiation may render vast regions of Japan permanently uninhabitable and the impacts could harm millions worldwide.
Therefore, what is happening in Japan with the shutdown of all reactors and the situation at Fukushima may have wider implications worldwide and could bring the plans of the global nuclear industry into question.
Hollande's policies
The defeat of Sarkozy in France does not bode well for its nuclear generation as the new president, Francois Hollande, promised to reduce France's dependence on nuclear energy from 78 to 50 per cent by 2025 and he will almost certainly not approve the building of any nuclear reactors.
In Taiwan, presidential nominee Tsai Ingwen set a timetable to close down the country's three reactors after a scare of failure of a foundation bolt of one reactor. In Russia, demonstrators used the 26th Chernobyl anniversary to voice their opposition to nuclear power. In India, months of protest and hunger strikes grows against the launch of Kudankulam nuclear plant situated in the seismically active area.
Those who doubted the consequences of Fukushima should rethink again.
The writer is former head of the Energy Studies Department in Opec Secretariat in Vienna.
