The member-states of the Gulf Cooperation Council ought to find a way to clinch an equitable trade deal with the EU and thus streamline the current imbalance in volumes. Available stats suggest that the GCC enjoys trade surpluses with key regions and trading partners across the board, but with the clear exception of the EU.
The IMF projects current account surpluses for all the GCC states for this year and the next on the back of the steady oil prices. (Oil accounts for three-quarters of the exports from the GCC. And what’s more, prices keep hovering around $100 a barrel ever since the post-subprime induced market crisis of 2008.
This phenomenon contributes to ensuring sustained surpluses in the external accounts, with the trade surplus running consistently at above the $400 billion level annually in recent years.
The IMF projects current account surpluses of 10.4 per cent, 37.4, 7.8, 25.4, 15.8 and 13.3 of GDP this year for Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE respectively. Notably, the surpluses are in double-digits for all except for Oman; but this is likely to improve as the sultanate exerts efforts to expand its oil production capacity.
Remarkably, Asia’s oil-importing countries contribute heavily to GCC’s current account surpluses. Japan alone accounts for 12 per cent of the total GCC trade, but contributes around 28 per cent to its surplus. India accounts for 11 per cent of the trade volumes and 9 per cent of the surplus, and its 10 per cent and 5 per cent in China’s case.
South Korea contributes 18 per cent of the GCC’s trade surplus, while the US accounts for 8 per cent of the GCC’s trade overall but 1 per cent of the group’s trade surplus.
Yet, the EU, compromising 28 member-states following the accession of Croatia in 2013, remains the largest trading partner for the GCC, accounting for 13 per cent of the overall. However, the EU stands out for having a sizeable surplus with the GCC on the back of its exporting mite.
Latest statistics confirm that the two sides are further expanding their trade volumes. The value soared to $203 billion in 2013, up from the $135 billion in 2010. The bulk of the GCC exports consist mainly of fuels and chemical products.
In turn, EU exports are made up primarily of manufactured products, principally machinery and transport equipment, and more specifically power generation plants, railway locomotives and aircraft.
The GCC airlines have been placing substantial orders with Airbus for aircraft. Also, the European side is benefiting from the building of railway and metro networks in GCC cities. Likewise, EU enjoys a surplus on services in their dealings with the GCC. Overall, the Gulf volumes represents 4.4 per cent of its international trade.
Certainly, it makes sense for the EU — and others — to explore ways to expand business ties with the GCC, for the bloc’s inherent features such as steady economic growth rates, exceptional per capita incomes, and above all in the maintenance of an open-trade policy. This is not something prevalent all over the world.
The writer is a Member of Parliament in Bahrain.