LONDON: Sterling dived to its lowest in nearly 10 months against the dollar on Monday after an opinion poll for the first time showed Scotland was ready to vote to break up its three-century-old union with the rest of the United Kingdom.

With just 10 days to go before the referendum, a YouGov survey for the Sunday Times newspaper put the “Yes” to independence campaign at 51 per cent against the “no” camp at 49 per cent.

Until a week ago, the risk of the Scots departing had been regarded by financial markets and London-based authorities as unlikely. Leaders of Britain’s main political parties were scrambling to respond by promising a range of new powers for Scotland if it chooses to stay within the United Kingdom.

Sterling sank more than 1 per cent — its most in 13 months — to trade at $1.6145 against the dollar in early European deals. It was also almost 1 per cent lower against the euro, driving the Bank of England’s trade-weighted sterling index to its lowest since the end of April.

“The speed with which the polls have flipped has clearly been a shock to a lot of people,” said Adam Myers, European head of FX strategy at Credit Agricole in London.

Further out though, markets are less clear whether a “Yes” vote would be a clear negative for the pound.

The UK economy has outstripped all of its major peers in Europe over the past 18 months, driving the currency as much as 15 per cent higher against the dollar and, while growth is set to slow somewhat, the Scottish vote is not expected to upset that picture.

Options markets show one-month implied volatility for the pound at a 13-month high but they fall back again after two months.

Analysts also warn that there are substantial risks to business and financial markets in the potentially fevered negotiations that would follow a “Yes” vote, but after a week of selling it is possible that the bulk of the initial risk to sterling is priced in.

“I would probably wait until tomorrow before buying sterling,” Myers said. “There may be more medium-term money managers who don’t normally look at sterling who come in today and decide to sell a bit. But once that is over, the pound looks very good value at these levels.” Sterling last traded exactly 1 per cent lower compared to Friday’s US close at $1.6169.

Against the yen, sterling touched a three-month low at 169.68 yen, before recovering a bit of ground to 169.90.

“A vote for independence only marks the opening chapter in uncertainty over issues ranging from the timelines for political and economic independence, resultant institutional frameworks, lender of last resort for Scotland, the division of assets and liabilities, fiscal impact and policies, and what currency choices Scotland will have available and choose,” analysts at Barclays wrote in a note to clients.

“As a result, realised volatility in GBP, with a downside bias, likely will increase for an extended period.” On technical charts, sterling has key long-term support at around $1.6000 to $1.6100, with both the 100-week and 200-week moving averages now in that area, said Jeffrey Halley, FX trader for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore.

The tumble in the pound helped lend support to the dollar in the wake of a disappointing jobs report on Friday. Against the yen, the dollar last traded at around 105.095 yen, staying below a six-year high of 105.71 yen touched on Friday.

The euro, which has come under pressure after fresh policy action from the European Central Bank last Thursday, steadied against the dollar. It traded at $1.2945, just off a 14-month low of $1.2920 set last week.