Dubai: Unlucky for some, perhaps, but the number 13 is suddenly one of the most eagerly awaited in the numerological universe of the UAE-based non-resident Indian, or NRI.
The Indian rupee has been flirting with this number for the past couple of weeks, hovering in the 12.60 to 12.90 range. Now it is on the cusp of hitting Rs13 to Dh1, bringing joy to those holding their breath and waiting to remit cash to India.
"It's pretty much there; it's just across the road," said Pradeep Unni, senior research analyst at Richcomm Global Services DMCC, referring to the level of Rs13 to the dirham. Unni expects the rupee to weaken to as much as 13.50 before possibly strengthening again.
He said it is "the fear factor in the euro zone" that is prompting foreign institutional investors, or FIIs, to yank their cash out of emerging market stocks and pile it into gold and the US dollar. This is strengthening the dollar.
The UAE dirham, given its peg to that currency, is becoming stronger too.
Unni believes the 13 level will be scaled "within a month" as the rupee weakens to more than 48 to the dollar. The last significant low plumbed by the rupee was in March 2009, when the Indian currency hit 14.06 to the dirham.
The rupee's relative weakness is a blessing for NRIs with rupee commitments back home. Expect long queues at exchange houses over the next couple of weeks.
