The jury is not yet out on what the adverse effects of sustained low oil prices would have on job opportunities in the Gulf economies. Certainly, expatriate workers are expected to bear the brunt of possible job losses on the back of their substantial representation in the workforce.

Where applicable, private enterprises prefer expatriates over locals for reasons of pay, productivity and performance. Some 17 million expatriates work in the Gulf, and the figure increases to above 23 million by adding family members. This effectively comprises half of the total population in the six-nation grouping.

The statistics are staggering by global standards. Immigrant workers from India alone constitute at least a third of the populations in Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE.

Also, half of formally registered Overseas Filipino Workers work in four Gulf countries - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar. Saudi Arabia alone provides jobs for a quarter of the OFWs.

Much to their credit, Saudi authorities found no significant irregularities among OFWs whilst introducing the ‘Nitaqat’ scheme. The project is designed to enhance employment opportunities for locals in the private sector. The discovery made OFWs even more popular in Saudi Arabia, opening avenues for others to work in the kingdom.

Undoubtedly, oil importing countries such as India, Pakistan and the Philippines benefit from the drop in oil prices in terms of lower import bills, though that is not the full story. Theoretically, Gulf economies could curtail imports as far as the balance of payments situation is concerned.

Yet, persistent low oil prices cause negative side effects for job opportunities for expatriates at large. Oil prices dropped by more than half in the last 14 months and there is no end in sight.

Certainly, it is logical to assume that some GCC countries would be obliged to restrict growth in spending to avoid posting sizable budgetary shortfalls. Lower spending translates into fewer job opportunities.

In reality, Saudi Arabia has resorted to the practice of issuing local bonds and withdrawing from the general reserves to bridge the gap between projected revenues and expenditures. Oil prices are particularly compelling for Saudi Arabia by virtue of being the largest exporter in the world.

Then, there is the significant issue of remittances sent by workers to their countries. As of the now, outgoing remittances from the six-nation Gulf bloc stand at $80 billion and could jump to nearly $100 billion by adding cash and other valuables such as jewellery.

Pakistan is exceptionally dependent on remittances generated from the Gulf and it is suggested these account for about 60 per cent of the total inward remittances. Conversely, remittances to India originate from more diversified sources reflecting the presence of Indian workers in other parts of the world. Nevertheless, the Gulf accounts for one-third of remittances destined for India.

Trouble is the size of the remittances to could be reduced reflecting adverse developments in the job market. Clearly, low prices are a two-edged sword not just for the Gulf.

Needless to say, so much is at the stakes with regards to low oil prices. In the age of globalization, nations share the good, the bad and the ugly sides of economic turns.

The writer is a Member of Parliament in Bahrain.