A decade ago when I started covering this region full time for CNN, the discussion was all about the wealth gap between rich and poor and how to narrow it in the Islamic world. Sky-high youth unemployment in the poorer countries of the Middle East and North Africa was, as we know in retrospect, a trigger point for uprisings in the region.
In his last meeting as the long-serving President of the Jeddah-based Islamic Development Bank, Dr Ahmad Ali Al Madani talked of the ongoing struggle to make sure investment does indeed target the Islamic youth.
“Youth really needs to be taken care of at a very critical stage. Everybody is realising the importance of this, so I think this will make a big difference,” said Al Madani.
The Islamic world may be close to an economic turning point according to Al Madani. Yes the wealth gap still exists; youth unemployment remains stubbornly high at around 25 per cent, but the Islamic economy of tomorrow is starting to be defined.
Languages and geographies normally serve as barriers to trade and investment, but those attending the annual meeting of the recent Islamic Development Bank in Jakarta talked of the underlying growth of this market. “You have an open arena to build up businesses between different cultures,” said Marwan Al Ganem, director of operations for the Kuwait Fund for Development, which was founded back in 1961.
It is sizeable market by any global standard: 1.7 billion consumers, with a birth rate growing two times the pace of the world average. Consumer spending in 2014 tallied $1.8 trillion (Dh6.6 trillion) and is slated to surge to $2.6 trillion by 2020 according to a study by Thomson Reuters.
The market development is being led primarily by a handful of countries with Malaysia, the UAE and Singapore standing out in nearly every category. The fastest growing sectors in the last decade have been halal food, halal travel and leisure, the pharmaceutical and cosmetics arena and clearly Islamic finance, with total assets under management of $105 trillion.
The 2008-09 financial crisis actually served to underscore the level of safety inherent in the Islamic banking sector. Part of the growth today is being driven by speciality funds designed for the Islamic market to fund infrastructure development in these countries.
The IDB has set up two such vehicles using the public-private partnership model, delivering returns that Wall Street and the City of London would eye with envy. “You have to structure it right; you need the government and public sector collaboration and you can get a return as high as 18-20 per cent,” said Abu Bakr Chowdhury, Managing Director and CFO of ASMA Capital Partners.
ASMA has helped set up the investment model for the IDB to facilitate the PPP structure, which has garnered high demand outside the Islamic investment world. Water, power, transportation and health care are taking top billing as these developing countries try to find their way in the global arena for foreign direct investment.
The Islamic world has clear champions that have set the pace. They are naturally attractive investment destinations due to the sheer size of their markets. Turkey tripled the size of its GDP over a 12-year period and Indonesia has its sights on taking the baton in the current generation of investment for the Islamic market.
“What we are trying to do is implement economic policies in the right way,” said Bambang Brodjonegoro, Indonesia’s Minister of Finance. The country wants to move up to 40 from 109 on the World Bank’s ease of doing business survey to attract investment.
But the reality is too many countries — without natural resources or large populations — are being left behind despite the efforts by many development and sovereign funds to help them turn the corner. Poverty rates remain too high, with a quarter of the population for example in Egypt still living on less than $2 a day.
So what is the correct recipe to get development right? Even those at the Kuwait Fund admit there was too much emphasis on infrastructure for the past half century, while overlooking critical social services. Paved roads are essential for commerce but so too are jobs and basic health care.
“Ten years ago we realised that we need to go to the social sector because it has the most effect on the nation itself,” said Al Ganem.
While the Muslim world accounts for about a quarter of the world’s population, it accounts for less than 12 per cent of global GDP according to the Organisation of the Islamic Conference. Per capita income has continued to rise, but the wealth gap within the Islamic world continues to widen according to the OIC.
“Even looking at the past 50 years, we are still at step one to be frank,” said the Kuwait Fund’s Al Ganem.
That says a great deal from a fund that has ploughed over $20 billion into loans and grants to advance what could be defined as the next fast-growing market that still has work to do.
— The writer is CNNMoney’s Emerging Markets Editor.