Turkey placed itself firmly on the global stage thanks to a qualitative economic shift achieved over the last 12 years, turning itself into one of the 20 largest economies in the world. It occupies the 16th spot among economies in the Group of Twenty (G20), which determines many of the economic tracks and the general outline of policies followed in international affairs.

Since 2002, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) has doubled more than three times to reach $1 trillion (Dh3.67 trillion), while the per capita share of national income rose from $3,500 to $12,000 over the same period. Substantial foreign investments poured in as new investment laws were developed and gargantuan infrastructure projects were showcased including the new airport project costing up to $20 billion.

Among Turkey’s other projects is digging a new channel linking the Mediterranean and Black seas as an alternative to the Bosporus Strait, which will provide extra income thanks to the fees that will be imposed on the grounds that Turkey cannot, according to the terms of its surrender agreement in the First World War, receive any fees in the Bosporus.

This agreement ends in 2023, which coincides with the first anniversary of the cancellation of the Caliphate as well as the launch of the new channel.

All these economic achievements increased the popularity of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his party and propelled him to the top ranks up to 2013, until it became impossible to imagine the Justice and Development Party led by him could ever lose elections or general referendums. However, a series of internal and external political mistakes and follies toppled the aura generated by the economic boom.

Erdogan, who appears to be inflicted with megalomania, is considered directly responsible for the setback suffered by his party in the elections that took place earlier in the month, during which he was unable to obtain an absolute majority as was the case for more than a decade. The votes polled by his party did not exceed 41 per cent of the total.

Relations with Arab countries

The first of the mistakes was Erdogan’s adoption of the extreme Muslim Brotherhood grouping, which is working to destabilise many Arab countries, especially Egypt and the Gulf states, and turning Turkey into its global headquarters. This led to a deterioration of its relations with Arab countries and the withdrawal of Gulf investments of more than $15 billion earmarked for implementing important projects for the Turkish economy in the energy and infrastructure fields.

This policy also led to a decline in many areas of mutual cooperation and trade, which has caused much damage to public and private sectors in Turkey.

On the domestic front, Erdogan’s ego led to his losing his former ally and Islamist leader Fethullah Gulen. He also lost former president Abdullah Gul, hitherto a close ally. True, Gul belongs to the same party, but disagrees with Erdogan regarding the adoption of the Muslim Brotherhood and opening all of Turkey’s doors to them without restrictions, and even offering unwavering state resources as support.

In this case, Prime Minister Ahmad Davutoglu sees eye to eye with Gul.

This is not to mention the series of scandals which affected President Erdogan and members of his family — regardless of whether or not they are true — and his excessiveness in the trial of his opponents and expelling them from state institutions and the military, despite their political and social weight and experience.

These and other political mistakes led to Erdogan’s losing the unprecedented popular support he enjoyed as a Turkish leader since the time of Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey, and attained mainly thanks to the economic leaps achieved during his reign.

The continuation of economic growth must be accompanied by political and social stability and finding political balance at the local and external levels.

Erdogan failed to achieve this, as he put his ideologies and convictions in support of the Muslim Brotherhood above the interests of Turkey and its local and external allies, which has pushed him into a dark tunnel that is hard to exit.

Dr Mohammad Al Asoomi is a UAE economic expert and specialist in economic and social development in the UAE and the GCC countries.