Momentum or the “big mo” has suddenly returned to the oil market, despite no significant change in energy policy from the major producers of the world. If one blinked, they would have missed this rally.

From the lows hit on February 11 with North Sea Brent tumbling to a 13-year low just a hair below $27 (Dh99) a barrel, we have witnessed a 30 per cent spike, or a gain of $10.

The mere discussion about the major producers, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, and encouraged by Venezuela and Qatar, sent a signal that an all-out price war was not in the offing. The rally took place despite daily overproduction still hovering around 1.5 million barrels a day, equivalent to adding another Angola to the market every day in terms of output.

Even with the election out of the way, Iran has not budged on its position not to be part of the “big freeze” agreement after having lived under sanctions for the last four years. So far, the market has shrugged off the fact both Iran and Iraq have been non-committal.

In an effort to maintain a dialogue among the major players, Venezuela’s oil minister Eulogio del Pino has suggested there will be another follow up meeting between Opec and non-Opec producers. But so far regional sources say a date and venue still need to be fixed.

Still resilient

Meanwhile, US crude inventories continue to swell to over a half billion barrels according to the Energy Information Administration. American production has dropped 400,000 barrels a day from its peak last spring, but at 9.2 million barrels it is still resilient to the market rout over the past year-and-a-half.

But behind all the geopolitical jockeying between Opec and non-Opec power brokers is an unwillingness to go beyond the current “flavour du jour” of a production freeze and for good reason. It is all about Asia.

Saudi Arabia and the other major Middle East producers, including Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait, plus Russia have put nearly all their energies on those who are still seeing rising demand for crude.

The name of the game in oil is demand growth and right now Asia represents the oil industry’s pot of gold.

“You put all the countries in Asia together, it is about 700,000 to 800,000 barrels a day of demand growth a year. Global oil demand growth this year, we expect to be 1.3 to 1.4 million barrels a day of which easily two-thirds to 70 per cent are coming from Asia,” says Fereidun Fesharaki, Founder and Chairman of Facts Global Energy.

Not too surprisingly, it is the two biggest emerging markets, China and India that garner most of the attention. China, despite what may turn out to be a dramatic economic slowdown, imported a record 7.8 million barrels a day in December, or a solid annual growth rate of 9 per cent according Opec’s research division.

Comparatively, India is playing a game of catch up, but imported a record 4.2 million barrels a day to close out 2015 with annual gain of 7 per cent. Their combined market share, according to the Dubai Mercantile Exchange, has tripled to 16 per cent of daily demand since 1990 and is expected to double between now and 2040.

Bilateral trade

The UAE has certainly made India a priority. His Highness Shaikh Mohammad Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, has just finished a high profile visit to India to expand bilateral trade ties already worth $60 billion a year. Energy is a key pillar behind that strategy, with current demand on Abu Dhabi’s crude below 300,000 barrels a day.

The UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs told me in a recent interview tied to that trip there are high expectations for demand to rise. “That can go much higher and there are many, many areas to explore in the oil sector among them of course is strategic reserves, greater sales of UAE oil to India and down streaming,” said Anwar Gargash.

Making a longer term bet on Asia can be tricky. From China to Southeast Asia, leaders are starting to invest in renewable energy sources and that will only continue despite today’s lower oil prices. The biggest risk, however, may come from slowing economic growth. We still do not understand the breadth of China’s local debt problems and Japan, now experiencing negative interest rates due to decades of deflation, is already seeing oil demand starting to drop.

But that is not stopping the energy powers from forging new strategic links with China. Saudi Arabia and China have set up strategic refineries on each other’s territories to cement their energy codependence. Back in June of 2014 when the west put sanctions on Vladimir Putin over Ukraine, China secured more favourable terms in a 30-year deal for oil and gas with Russia.

This is a high stakes game for new oil markets ... and yes it is all about Asia.

The writer is Emerging Markets Editor at CNNMoney.