The World Economic Forum’s recent Summit on the Global Agenda by design should set the framework for the Swiss Alpine gathering every January in Davos. Instead, the upheaval in the region and the stubbornly low price of crude continued to hold the regional agenda hostage.

The International Monetary Fund raised alarm bells when it said that Saudi Arabia could burn through over $650 billon of reserves in five years if oil prices stay in the $50 a barrel range.

The international group of experts in Abu Dhabi for the annual brainstorming at the Yas Marina Circuit expressed real concern in particular for the region’s largest economy, which also is home to the fastest cash burn rate of government reserves.

That would be Saudi Arabia.

“With oil prices where they are and Yemen and Iraq as troubled as they are, you have to wonder about the stability of Saudi Arabia itself. It is the single biggest question that has to be upsetting people,” said Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group.

The geo-political strategist suggested that a prolonged slump in energy prices “could be a lot like the Arab Spring” for the countries that have been slow to diversify or usher in economic reforms.

Saudi Arabia, according to the IMF, still has a breakeven price for crude of $106 — that compares unfavourably with Kuwait ($49), Qatar ($56) and here in the UAE ($73).

But no one will escape a measure of belt-tightening and the IMF said that lower crude prices will chip away at the plentiful rate of savings over the past decade. “If you add it up for all the six countries over the next five years it is a [budget] deficit of $700 billion,” Masood Ahmad, director of the Middle East and Central Asia at the IMF, told me.

“Look at the last five years when oil prices were going up and the same group of countries were running a budget surplus together of over $600 billion. So it is a huge fiscal swing.”

The economic slowdown has been even more pronounced for the region’s oil exporters. They’ll be lucky to generate growth of 1.8 per cent this year, less than a third of the level achieved when oil was averaging $100 barrel oil or more.

And, according to the Institute of International Finance, demand for all commodities will continue to drop longer than most are calculating.

“If you look at the super cycle for commodities, the uptrend was 10-12 years. The downtrend in our view is 15 years or more, so we are four to five years into that downtrend,” Hung Tran, executive managing director of IIF, told me during his visit to the capital.

Tran said this down-cycle after the boom in commodities will continue to be particularly painful for energy-exporting countries. The IIF said there are plenty of landmines to avoid in 2016, suggesting that nearly eight years from the start of the financial crisis the world could be poised for something more severe than a slowdown due to three key factors:

• World trade continues to tumble. It was actually at a negative half per cent through the first seven months of this year.

• China will struggle to hold on to 7 per cent growth.

• Emerging market corporate debt has ballooned to $23 trillion.

Those challenges and the regional upheaval are forcing the energy-rich countries to cut spending. The UAE has already raised petrol prices and is looking at introducing VAT and corporate taxes — all three measures were lauded by those at the IMF and the WEF meeting.

During a press briefing at the Yas Marina Circuit the UAE’s Minister of Cabinet Affairs said it is best not to panic, but choose instead to reform. “If we look at the problem and say let’s wait and it will sort itself out, nothing will happen. We need to work hard at this stage and we have to be wise,” said Mohammad Al Gergawi.

The translation for that in the West would be, don’t waste a good opportunity presented by a challenge to pass reforms. Fallout from the oil price collapse is hardly surprising, but it’s being made even worse by the regional upheaval in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen. This is weighing on the psyche of investors and consumers alike.

The IMF concluded this will have a “measurable impact” on those who have absorbed the most refugees and could least afford it — Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey.

The writer is CNN’s Emerging Markets Editor.