Indian rupee halfway to 24 vs. UAE dirham: Remit or await bigger drop?

Dubai: The Indian rupee is sinking again—and for UAE-based Indian expats, that’s a welcome turn.

With the currency now nearing 23.5 against the UAE dirham, its lowest in nearly two months, this not only gives remitters a more favourable exchange rate than the 23.2–23.3 levels seen earlier, it raises hopes of it maybe reaching even 24. (Check the current Indian rupee rate here.)

This slide follows a sharp spike in geopolitical tensions, with Israel’s strike on Iranian nuclear sites driving oil prices up 10% in a matter of hours. Higher oil prices mean costlier imports for India, which increases pressure on the rupee. But that’s not the only factor dragging it down.

There’s growing market anxiety over the possibility of new US tariffs on Indian goods. With a July deadline for a potential trade deal looming—and no agreement yet in place—investors are turning cautious. On top of that, India’s recent 0.5% interest rate cut has made the rupee less attractive to foreign investors, pushing the currency lower.

In effect, while Indian expats benefit from a weaker rupee now, the fall has deeper economic consequences. India pays for oil imports in dollars, so a weaker rupee inflates the cost of crude, which could widen the country’s current account deficit and stoke inflation at home.

Possibly. The rupee’s exchange rate is already hovering around 86 to the dollar. If geopolitical risks escalate and oil prices stay above the $85 mark, analysts warn the INR could fall toward 87 per dollar—bringing it closer to Dh24. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may need to step in to limit the slide, but so far, its stance remains soft.

India’s foreign reserves do offer some cushion, but if rate cuts continue or the dollar strengthens further, the rupee may remain under pressure. In fact, the last time the INR neared Dh24 was in early February this year, when it hit 23.9.

With the rupee weakening and uncertainty high, this may be the window Indian expats have been waiting for. Through much of April and May, the currency stayed firm in the 22.9–23.1 range, limiting how much families back home received. That’s changing now.

Analysts say if the RBI continues to ease interest rates, or if the US dollar gains further ground due to strong US economic data, we could see more rupee weakness ahead. In short: if you’re planning to send money to India soon, locking in today’s rates might not be a bad idea.