Gold price to fall further on US-China talk hopes: Should UAE buyers wait?

Dubai: Gold prices are showing signs of slipping, and UAE buyers may soon see more relief at the counter. After hovering near recent highs, bullion has dropped nearly 2% in just two sessions, thanks to fresh optimism over US-China trade negotiations and stronger-than-expected economic data from the US.

In global markets, gold is now trading near $3,330 an ounce, after peaking above $3,370. The drop came as upbeat US economic data reduced recession concerns, pushing the dollar higher and making non-yielding assets like gold slightly less attractive in the short term.

More importantly, high-level trade talks between the US and China kicked off in London, steadying prices on Monday. The two sides are looking to ease tensions, particularly around China’s dominance in rare earths production. This progress can calm investor nerves—softening demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

The Dubai gold rate for 22K traded at Dh369.75 a gram, down from recent levels of Dh374–Dh376. Retailers say there’s potential for a further Dh2–Dh3 drop, especially if international spot prices slide toward the $3,200 mark. (Check live gold rates here.)

Buyers at the Gold Souq and malls were active over the Eid Al Adha weekend, but the higher price point did keep some shoppers away. According to technical experts, a more decisive price break—say below Dh360 a gram—could bring back the crowds.

While gold may dip a little more in the short run, thanks to global trade optimism and a stronger dollar, analysts still see strong support around $3,200 per ounce. The bullish trend isn’t over—central banks, especially China’s, continue to stockpile gold, and ETF demand remains healthy.

Major forecasts suggest gold could average $3,063 in 2025, rising to around $3,350 by 2026. Even if prices dip to $3,000 (roughly Dh355/g), many believe it will only be a temporary correction.

If you’re in the UAE and eyeing gold—either for investment or gifting—Dh369 per gram is already a decent level. A dip closer to Dh360 could offer a better entry point. But don’t expect prices to crash. The global outlook remains supportive.

With potential tailwinds ahead, this may be one of the few “wait-and-watch” moments in 2025 where patience could pay off in grams.