Elections could test Taiwan's relationship with China

Tapei: As Taiwanese prepare to pick a president this week, the traditional hot-button issue of what to do with their 60-year foe China has cooled in the final stages of campaigning. Instead, candidates are bickering more about local issues, to the relief of Washington.

Tension between Taiwan and China will continue, especially if challenger Tsai Ing-wen of the traditionally anti-Beijing Democratic Progressive Party wins. But neither a win by Tsai nor China-friendly incumbent Ma Ying-jeou is likely to see a return to the pre-2008 prospect of war between China and Taiwan.

Washington would welcome a continued thaw as it tries to improve ties with China without isolating Taiwan. The US government is bound by a 1979 congressional act to support Taiwan's defence but wants to get along with Beijing so it reaps the long-term economic and trade benefits expected from the Chinese economy.

China has claimed sovereignty over self-ruled Taiwan since the Chinese civil war of the 1940s. It has not renounced the threat of force to pursue reunification if peaceful means fail.

Independence

President Chen Shui-bian — who governed from 2000-2008 and was backed at the time by Tsai's party — outraged Beijing with his unsuccessful pursuit of constitutional independence for Taiwan, fanning fear that cast China as a major election issue.

For both presidents, dialogue with China was all but impossible.

Ma of the Nationalist Party began engaging China after taking office in 2008. He has brokered regular talks that have produced 16 agreements on items such as investment, tourism, and direct flights, a multibillion-dollar boon to the economy.

Tsai meanwhile, advocates trade talks with China but only if it recognises Taiwan's autonomy. She rejects Ma's dialogue framework, a 1992 agreement that both sides see themselves as part of China but on their own terms.

The schism between support for economic gains and popular distrust will guide policy for either party, predicts Joseph Wu, the government's former head of China affairs and a research fellow at National Cheng Chi University in Taipei. "We need to have better relations with China and we need to be more careful," Wu says.

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