Beirut: Daesh, responsible for some of the worst atrocities perpetrated against civilians in recent history, appears on the verge of collapse.
After brutalising residents living under its command for more than three years, the militants have now lost their so-called capital of Raqqa and are battling to hang on to relatively small pockets of territory in Iraq and Syria, besieged by local forces from all sides. Few, however, expect Daesh to completely go away, or for the bloodshed in the two countries and the region to end quickly.
Here’s a look at Daesh, the rise and fall of its “caliphate” and what to expect next:
A ‘CALIPHATE’ NO MORE
Daesh, which emerged from the remnants of Al Qaida in Iraq, began its spread across the Mideast in early 2014, overrunning the Iraqi city of Fallujah and parts of the nearby provincial capital of Ramadi. In Syria, it seized sole control of the city of Raqqa after driving out rival Syrian rebel factions.
In June 2014, Daesh captured Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, from where its leader, Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi, declared a self-styled “caliphate,” a declaration tantamount to an earthquake that would temporarily redraw borders and shake up the entire region.
Daesh promised justice, equality and an Islamic, religious utopia. But over the next few years, it terrorised people living under its control, systematically slaughtering members of Iraq’s tiny Yazidi community, kidnapping women and girls as sex slaves, beheading Western journalists and aid workers and destroying some of the Mideast’s spectacular archaeological and cultural sites.
Daesh also attracted a motley crew of foreign fighters, mostly marginalised European youths and other foreigners who took up its cause. But it alienated mainstream Sunni Muslims, who found Daesh’ crude interpretation of Islam also spreading in areas far from Syria and Iraq.
Creating a territorial caliphate created a target, and an international anti-Daesh coalition soon took shape.
The United States launched its campaign of air strikes against Daesh in Iraq in August 2014, and a month later in Syria. In Iraq, it partnered with government forces working with state-sanctioned Shiite-led militias as well as Iraqi Kurdish fighters known as peshmerga. In Syria, it partnered with local Syrian Kurdish-led fighters, the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Supported by tens of thousands of US-led air strikes, these forces drove Daesh militants from one stronghold after another over the years. The biggest blow came in July when Mosul, long regarded as Daesh’ administrative capital, was liberated.
In Syria, Daesh appears to be heading for collapse as the US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, and Syrian government forces, backed by their Russian allies, are attacking them in separate, simultaneous offensives.
A senior SDF commander on Tuesday said his forces liberated Raqqa from Daesh militants and would formally announce victory soon after clearing operations to remove land mines and search for sleeper cells. Mayadeen, a town in the heart of Syria’s Euphrates River Valley near Iraq’s border where the militants had been expected to make their last stand, fell to Syrian government troops over the weekend.
In northern Iraq, the militants no longer hold any cities or towns after their stronghold of Hawija fell earlier this month. Iraq’s army is now gearing up to fight Daesh in its last territory - the sprawling desert Anbar province stretching all the way to the Syrian border. In Syria, Daesh still holds the town of Al Bukamal near the Iraqi border and scattered pockets of territory in the east.
The destruction of Daesh has come at a devastating cost for both Syria and Iraq, and immense suffering for those who endured the militants’ brutal reign.
The fighting and air strikes have pulverised once thriving cities, turning them into tragic vistas of crushed apartment blocks, flattened homes and collapsed roads and bridges. In Ramadi, Mosul and Raqqa, the scope of the damage is staggering.
Two weeks ago, the US-led coalition announced it has returned more than 83 per cent of Daesh-held land to local populations since 2014, liberating more than 6 million Syrians and Iraqis in the process.
At least 735 civilians have been unintentionally killed by coalition strikes, although activists and war monitors estimate the toll to be much higher.
The nine-month battle to liberate Mosul resulted in the death of up to 1,500 Iraqi forces. At least 1,100 SDF fighters were killed in the battles for Syria’s Raqqa and Deir Al Zor up until late September, according to the coalition.
In the three years since Daesh began building its “caliphate,” it has killed thousands of people, displaced millions and worked hard on infusing children with extremist doctrine.
SHIFTING OF SANDS
The rise of Daesh and subsequent wars and alliances to bring about its defeat has worsened political and sectarian fault-lines in Syria and Iraq.
It gave unprecedented clout to Kurdish populations in both countries, unsettling their central governments, as well as Iran and Turkey, both battling Kurdish separatists within their own borders.
Under cover of the fight against Daesh, Iraq’s Kurds seized the oil-rich city of Kirkuk in 2014 - a move Baghdad has now reversed, moving into the city, seizing oil fields and other infrastructure in an attempt to curb Kurdish aspirations for independence.
The shifting and chaotic battlefields in Syria’s civil war, tensions between Kurds and ethnic Arabs, the presence of Shiite militias and government troops in predominantly Sunni towns and cities vacated by Daesh may lead to more violence.
In many ways, the fight over Daesh spoils and territories is only just beginning.
All forces battling Daesh will have to remain vigilant even after they recapture the last militant-held territory. In some ways, they now face an even more daunting challenge.
Hisham Al Hashem, an Iraqi writer and analyst, estimates there remain 8,000 militants in Iraq’s Anbar who will melt away “like salt in water” to wait for the right moment to launch their next insurgency or suicide attack.
Daesh affiliates continue to carry out swift attacks in Egypt and Libya, where the group gained a foothold and which could be its preferred theaters of retaliations. Before it broke away from Al Qaida and rebranded itself as Daesh, Al Qaida in Iraq waged a years-long insurgency following the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, pushing the country to the brink of civil war.
Where in the world is Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi?
The leader of Daesh urged followers to burn their enemies everywhere and target “media centres of the infidels,” according to an audio recording released in September that the extremists said was by Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi.
The reclusive leader, who has only appeared in public once, also vowed to continue fighting and lavished praise on his fighters for their valour in the battlefield — despite the militants’ loss of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul in July.
The recording was released by the Daesh-run Al Furqan outlet, which has in the past released messages from Al Baghdadi and other top figures of the extremist group. The voice in the over 46-minute-long audio sounded much like previous recordings of Al Baghdadi. His last previous purported message was released in November, also in an audio recording.
Russian officials said in June there was a “high probability” that Al Baghdadi had died in a Russian air strike on the outskirts of the Syrian city of Raqqa, the group’s de facto capital. US officials later said they believed he was still alive.
Al Baghdadi’s whereabouts is unknown but he is believed to be in Daesh’s dwindling territory in eastern Syria.
The Daesh-held cities of Raqqa and Deir Al Zor are under siege and likely too dangerous for him to hide in. Some Daesh leadership is believed to have gone to the nearby town of Mayadeen, and the group still holds a stretch of the Euphrates River from Deir Al Zor to the Iraqi border, as well as remote desert areas along the border.
Al Baghdadi also spoke of what he called the United States’ waning global power, saying Russia was taking advantage of that to cast itself as the superpower replacing America.
Russia, he added, was in full control of the “Syrian file.”
Citing examples of America’s perceived weakness, he referred to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and “North Korea’s nuclear threat against America and Japan.”
Al Baghdadi’s reference to the nuclear threat suggests his message was recently recorded, perhaps in the past month or two.